Putin holds the fate of the Ukraine war in his hands

Brussels rebuke

The decidedly pro-Russian format of Trump's original 28-point peace plan provoked fierce criticism from both Ukraine and Europe, to the extent that it has now been revised following extensive talks between Ukrainian and American officials in Geneva this week.

The result is a new 19-point peace plan, which appears to have  received a positive response from Kyiv, but has caused dismay in Moscow, which claims many of the pro-Russian proposals contained in the original draft have now been either removed or scaled down.

Commenting on the outcome of the Geneva talks,  Zelensky said the "principles" in the new version of the Trump peace plan "can be developed into deeper agreements", and that Kyiv was ready to engage in further negotiations.

In a statement, Ukraine's presidency office did not disclose details but said the talks were "constructive" and that final decisions on the refined deal would be made by the presidents of Ukraine and the US.

Ukraine's First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya, who attended the Geneva talks, told The Financial Times that the meeting was "intense" and nearly collapsed before it began. However, the resulting draft had left both sides feeling "positive," he said, adding that the most sensitive topics—territorial issues and the question of Ukraine's future in NATO—were left for Trump and Zelensky to decide on.

"We developed a solid body of convergence and a few things we can compromise on," Kyslytsya told The FT. He said that "very few things are left from the original version". Ukraine's national security adviser, Rustem Umerov, voiced optimism that Zelensky could travel to the US before the end of November to finalise an agreement.

Following the success of the talks between the American and Ukrainian delegations, Trump is sending Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow next week, while Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll is expected to meet Ukrainian officials in the coming days.

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump said "we're making progress" on a revised peace plan that appeared to award Ukraine more of its demands, and added that Kyiv was indeed "happy".

Unhappy over revisions

With the Ukrainians seemingly on board, the key question now is how Putin will respond to the revised peace proposal, with reports that there is a great deal of uncertainty at the Kremlin at the moment, with the Russians said to be unhappy about revisions to the peace plan because of the possible concessions it might require from Russia.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the US delegation at the Geneva talks, certainly recognised the challenge of persuading the Russians to agree to the peace deal, acknowledging that, with Russia not at the table, there were no guarantees that Putin would accept the deal."Obviously, the Russians get a vote here too," Rubio said at the conclusion of the Geneva talks.

A major bone of contention for the Kremlin would be any requirement that it cede any territory it has seized during the conflict. Russia has already unilaterally declared its annexation of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Kherson, and Luhansk, having forcefully annexed Crimea in 2014.

In previous discussions, Putin has insisted that all five territories remain under Russian control, a position that has remained unchanged despite Trump's efforts, including at their face-to-face meeting in Alaska in August.

Putin's foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, said Russian officials had not discussed the purported peace plan when talks were held with US officials in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.

Ushakov also said Russia had not yet officially received a revised peace plan for Ukraine. "We, the Russian side, have not yet discussed any documents with anyone specifically ... We've agreed to a meeting with Mr Witkoff. I hope he won't be alone. Other representatives of the US team working on the Ukrainian dossier will be there," he said in comments reported by state news agency TASS.

Consequently, while Trump has genuine grounds for optimism that a deal to end the Ukraine conflict is now possible, whether it ultimately comes to fruition depends on whether Putin can be persuaded to accept a lasting peace deal.