A new Ukraine peace plan surfaces out of the blue

Behind the scenes dealings

Yet it now appears that, behind the scenes, work has continued to find a formula to end the conflict—a process that has gathered momentum after Trump imposed punitive sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas in contravention of existing sanctions.

With the Russian economy already struggling to cope with the impact of Western sanctions, the prospect of countries like China and India, which have continued to buy significant quantities of Russian oil and gas, scaling down their trade with Russia, placed further pressure on Putin to engage in ceasefire talks.

There has even been speculation that his willingness to take a more positive approach to the ceasefire talks has led to Lavrov, renowned for his combative style, being sidelined from the discussions. Russian press reports said Lavrov had been "deliberately absent" from a key national security council meeting earlier this month after Putin blamed him for the failure to arrange the Budapest summit.

Whatever the truth about Lavrov, there certainly appears to have been a change in dealings between Washington and Moscow, with reports surfacing that the US and Russia had prepared a new peace framework.

While neither Washington nor Moscow has officially confirmed the plan, details of a 28-point draft proposal are now circulating following talks between Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Russia's special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev.

Ceding Donbas 

A key part of the proposals is the requirement that Ukraine would lease part of its territory to Russia as part of a ceasefire arrangement—a requirement that could face bitter opposition in Kyiv, given the widespread suffering Ukraine has suffered since Russia launched its invasion.

In background briefings, US officials have suggested that the deal would require Kyiv to cede control of the eastern Donbas region but maintain legal ownership. Russia would pay an undisclosed rental fee for de facto control of the region. As well as forcing Ukraine to surrender territory, the deal would slash Kyiv's military in half and ban it from possessing long-range missiles.

It would also block deployments of foreign troops in Ukraine, end US military assistance and prevent foreign diplomatic aircraft from landing in the country. Russian would be made an official state language, and the Russian Orthodox Church would be given official status in the occupied territories.

Ukraine would be permitted to negotiate security guarantees from the US and European governments to help maintain any ceasefire.

'Difficult concessions required'

While not commenting directly on the proposals, Rubio wrote on X that achieving a "durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions. That is why we are and will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict".

Officials in the Ukrainian capital have already dismissed the plan, while Russia has denied any knowledge of it. While Trump has not commented on the deal, he revealed that he had recently told Putin: "Let me settle your freaking war".

Signs that the Trump administration's latest peace initiative could be gaining traction came with reports that senior Pentagon officials have arrived in Ukraine to "discuss efforts to end the war" with Russia.

Concerns that the plan could be too heavily weighted in Russia's favour were reflected in comments made by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who warned that for any plan to work, it would need to have Ukrainians and Europeans on board. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said, "The Ukrainians do not want any form of capitulation".

With fighting still continuing between Ukrainian and Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, there is clearly a great deal of work to be done before a lasting ceasefire is established.