Ukraine peace talks: one step forward, two steps back

The prospects of a breakthrough remain bleak as Putin blames Europe for sabotaging a 28-point peace plan agreed on with the US

Ukraine peace talks: one step forward, two steps back

Despite US diplomatic efforts to negotiate a lasting peace settlement for Ukraine, the prospects of a breakthrough remain bleak.

Last month, a 28-point agreement surfaced as the basis for a peace deal following what appeared to be secret talks between Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump's special envoy, and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, who serves a similar role for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But the plan drew widespread criticism from both European leaders and Ukraine, who argued that the territorial concessions being offered to Moscow were rewarding Putin. This prompted days of intensive talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Geneva, where revisions were made.

Having squared off the Europeans and Ukrainians, Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, travelled to Moscow this week for face-to-face talks with Putin at the Kremlin in the hope of finally making a breakthrough in a process that first began after Trump returned to the White House in January.

But the revisions were not deemed acceptable to Moscow, taking negotiations back to the drawing board. In a recent interview for the POLITICO website, the Kremlin’s TV personality and State Duma politician, Yevgeny Popov, said that “no decisions will be made that would undermine Russia’s security. This must be clearly understood.”

Apart from Putin’s body language, which signalled that there was no room for compromise, Witkoff and Kushner were deliberately kept waiting for several hours before the meeting, as the Russian president spoke at the press conference where he warned that “We’re not planning to wage a war with Europe, but if Europe decides to start a war, we’re ready right now,” he said.

Ushakov said that Putin told the US that Russia could agree on some parts of the revised plan but disagreed on others

Sabotage claims

Putin has previously accused Europe of sabotaging Russia's relations with the US, by putting forward demands Moscow could not accept and of blocking the peace process. In the days leading up to the talks, he also reiterated his stance that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was an illegitimate leader (due to ruling beyond his term expired)  , rendering him unauthorised to strike a deal.  

Consequently, it came as no surprise that the Russian readout of the talks with Witkoff and Kushner was downbeat, even though Dmitriev, who was present, called the meeting "productive." 

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy adviser who was also present at the meeting, later described the conversation as "useful, constructive, and highly substantive," but added there was still a "lot of work" to be done. 

Ushakov said that Putin told the US that Russia could agree on some parts of the revised plan but disagreed on others

"The president did not hide our critical and even negative attitude towards a number of proposals." Ushakov said Putin flagged "the destructive actions of the European side".

Apart from territorial disputes, another key stumbling block for Putin is Europe's demand that Ukraine be allowed to join the NATO alliance once the conflict has ended as a means of guaranteeing Kyiv's security from any future acts of Russian aggression.

Russia is completely opposed to the proposal, and Ushakov confirmed that the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was a "key question" discussed in Moscow.

A key stumbling block for Putin is Europe's demand that Ukraine join NATO once the conflict has ended

Keeping the door open

Despite the stalemate, Russia has nevertheless expressed a readiness to keep negotiating, with a Kremlin official calling territorial issues the "most important issue." Ushakov said that no meeting was currently planned between Putin and Trump, and that such a meeting would depend on progress on reaching a peace settlement.

The Trump administration, too, seems determined to pursue its efforts to end the Ukraine conflict, with US and Ukrainian officials holding talks in Florida to discuss the outcome of the Kremlin meeting.

Trump insisted the talks were "reasonably good", but added that it was too soon to say what would happen because "it does take two to tango."

When asked by a reporter whether Witkoff and Kushner believed Putin genuinely wanted to end the war, Trump said: "(Putin) would like to end the war. That was their impression."

Meanwhile, Europe shows no sign of backing away from its support for Ukraine, with Secretary-General Mark Rutte insisting that Ukraine had to be put in "the strongest position to keep the fight going".

At the same time, European Union member states have finally reached a deal with members of the European Parliament to make Europe fully independent of Russian gas before the end of 2027.

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed "the dawn of a new era" under a deal that means long-term gas pipeline contracts with Russia will be banned from September 2027, and long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas will be prohibited from January 2027.

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