Since US President Donald Trump took office, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has faced two stark choices: to strike a deal involving the abandonment of nuclear weapons ambitions and ballistic missile development in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and a promise of economic prosperity or risk US and Israeli military strikes aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the second option, while Trump prefers the first and has employed a carrot-and-stick approach to bring Iran to the negotiating table. The stakes could not be higher. Therefore, Al Majalla has chosen Trump and Iran: deal or strike? as our May cover story, tackling the issue from all angles: political, diplomatic and technical. The issue delves into the latest rounds of talks held in Muscat and Rome, the mysterious explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas on 26 April and the possible ramifications of either outcome for Iran and the broader region.
Changed landscape
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to engage with the US—a move that was welcomed by several influential Arab states—was made under the weight of escalatory American threats. The landscape in 2025 differs sharply from that of 2015 or even 2018, when Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord during his first term.
Today, Iran’s programme is far closer to being able to make a nuclear bomb, making any rollback significantly more difficult. Even if enrichment levels are capped, Tehran retains the technical capability to rapidly convert low-enriched uranium into weapons-grade material and has already accumulated enough to build several nuclear warheads. Experts argue that true dismantlement must go beyond enrichment limits. It would require the removal of centrifuges, stringent monitoring of manufacturing facilities, and the disposal of Iran’s existing uranium stockpiles.
One of the key concerns that Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, aims to address in discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is Iran’s capability to weaponise its nuclear programme. While the 2015 deal didn’t have an effective mechanism to monitor this aspect, any new agreement will seek to fill this gap by dismantling known elements of Iran’s armament programme and introducing a permanent oversight system to prevent covert resumptions.
