Joining the dots: Saudi Arabia, the two-state solution, and Syria

Cleaved of its leverage, Iran will embrace chaos in Syria, with jihadists and smugglers waiting. Politics and investment will help stabilise Syria, and could offer Palestine hope. Up steps Riyadh

Joining the dots: Saudi Arabia, the two-state solution, and Syria

There is a clear and deliberate connection between Saudi Arabia’s co-chairing of an international conference in New York to revive the two-state solution and its decision to send a high-level investment delegation to Syria just days earlier. At the heart of both is a strategic push to return to diplomacy and reopen political and economic horizons after a decade of devastating conflict, strengthening hardliners and breeding chaos.

That chaos was in evidence in Syria’s southern governorate of Suweida earlier this month, after local tensions erupted in a brutal wave of violence. Hundreds of Druze, Bedouin, and security forces members were killed, with the authorities having reportedly lost control of their fighters in the bedlam that led Israel to strike targets in Damascus, sending a clear reminder of its two red lines: the protection of the Druze community and the preservation of security arrangements in southern Syria.

Stepping in

Amid this increasingly complex landscape, Saudi Arabia seized the initiative by deploying a high-level business delegation headed by Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih. The visit yielded billions of dollars in immediate investment agreements that are poised to generate tens of thousands of jobs. The economic impact will be substantial for a war-ravaged nation, but the political message is even more important: Saudi Arabia commits to stabilising Syria’s reconstruction and institutional rebuilding.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria (brought down by fighters led by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa) has delivered one of the most strategic blows to Iran since the revolution in 1979. This setback has been compounded by the grave blows dealt to Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza respectively.

The political message is important: Saudi Arabia commits to stabilising Syria's reconstruction and institutional rebuilding

For a weakened Tehran, disorder is a powerful ally. Its interest in Syria will now be to feed the expansion of Islamic State jihadists, and fuel the networks of drug, arms, and Captagon trafficking. Stability, secure borders, functional institutions, and political legitimacy are the best counterweights to that, and therefore to Iranian influence and the forces of violent extremism.

Crucial talks

This shift was underscored by two rounds of diplomatic negotiations held in Paris. The first, mediated by the US, involved Syrian and Israeli officials and focused on the future of Suweida and the security arrangements in the south. The second brought together Syrian, French, and US representatives to discuss the acceleration of political transition and the future relationship between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north-east. Both are pressing issues.

These diplomatic efforts closely align with the objectives of the international conference co-sponsored by Saudi Arabia and France to revive the two-state solution—particularly following French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement that France will formally recognise a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders in September, becoming the first G7 country to do so. Several other countries that have not yet recognised a Palestinian state (142 of the UN's 193 members have done so) are expected to follow suit during the upcoming UN General Assembly meetings.

State imperative

The need for a Palestinian state is no longer merely a moral demand. It has become a political necessity, given the total destruction of Gaza, the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and Israel's annexation plans, something recently voted on by the Israeli parliament for the first time. Israel still says Palestinian state recognition is a reward for terrorism, and US President Donald Trump dismisses it as meaningless, but any future ceasefire in Gaza or prisoner exchange agreement will be fragile without a political horizon that the two-state solution seeks to establish.

Following the direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, the looming threat of war in Lebanon, and ongoing war in Gaza, reopening political pathways in Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon has become not only urgent but indispensable. These efforts mark a turning point in the attempt to restore regional stability, reinvigorate the peace process, and lay the foundations for a new regional order.

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