Will Yemen be the next arena for US-Iran confrontation?

Perhaps Khamenei's lacklustre response to Trump's initiative to negotiate over Iran's nuclear programme played a part in his decision to strike Yemen. Iran's Supreme Leader dismissed Trump's overture as a "trick", defiantly declaring: "If Iran decides to produce a nuclear weapon, Washington will not be able to stop it."

The renewed US strikes on Yemen, which killed civilians, were a painful reminder of the bloodshed of the past year and a half across the region from Gaza and the West Bank to Lebanon and Syria. For Yemen, they especially stung as the country has suffered relentless violence and sanctions since the Houthis seized power in 2014.

Changed landscape

It doesn't seem that long ago that Iran was boasting about its sway over key Arab capitals—from Damascus and Beirut to Baghdad and Sana'a. But today the regional landscape is much changed following Israel's decapitation of Hezbollah's top-tier leadership and Ahmed Sharaa's toppling of the Assad regime.

This explains why Iran is holding on for dear life to its last two remaining strongholds in Baghdad and Sana'a. In Iraq, it is digging in deep to offset its regional losses. For its part, the Houthis have vowed to keep up their naval blockade until Israel ceases its siege of Gaza.

Will Yemen become the next arena for US-Iran military confrontation? US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz's statement was telling: "We hit them with overwhelming force and warned Iran that enough is enough." According to US sources, the strikes are expected to continue for "days, possibly weeks."

Widened scope

They could also aim to weaken Iran's hand should they end up agreeing to the talks. Unlike the JCPOA negotiations under Obama, which focused solely on Iran's nuclear programme, this time the scope could be widened to include Iran's regional influence—something many Arabs detest.

For their part, the Houthis have vowed to retaliate and Iran could even follow suit. Khamenei is acutely aware that Iran is the real target of these strikes. He also knows just how aggressively Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying the US to carry out a decisive strike on Iran's nuclear programme.

An emboldened Netanyahu and a weakened regional 'axis' are both key factors in Khamenei's calculus going forward. Time will tell how Iran will respond to US attacks on Yemen, but more crucially, how it will respond to Trump's overtures for a 'deal'