Ahead of his upcoming inauguration, people are already casting their predictions over what Trump's return to the White House means for international dynamics. Observers expect his presidency to have a lasting impact on the global economy, as well as on security and diplomacy. How Trump not only interacts with traditional allies but also with emerging powers—particularly in the BRICS bloc—will be telling.
In the Middle East, the feeling of unease and uncertainty is palpable, particularly after Trump's ominous warning to "open the gates of hell" should Israeli hostages in Gaza not be freed. His threat is being taken seriously, and observers expect him to deliver on his promise through concrete action that could unfold across the Middle East—from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen and quite possibly Iran.
In Lebanon, Israel has substantially degraded Hezbollah, taking out its senior leadership and destroying large swaths of its military capabilities as well as homes and villages belonging to its support base. And while it is unclear whether a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, set to expire later this month, will be renewed, Iran looks keen to preserve what is left of the group. Lebanon—which shares a border with northern Israel—still holds strategic significance for Iran, which is currently struggling to safeguard its foothold in the region.
In Iraq, armed groups loyal to Iran have abruptly halted their drone and rocket attacks on Israel. Iraq is a key financial lifeline for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, so Tehran is keen on preserving this vital source of income.
