President-elect Donald Trump wants to end ongoing wars in the Middle East before he takes office. “Get it over with, and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” he said in April.
While Mr. Trump’s sentiments are commendable, they are also aspirational. While Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah have reached a tenuous ceasefire, a conclusion to the war with Hamas in Gaza remains a distant prospect. Meanwhile, Syria’s al-Assad regime has been toppled, signalling what could be a messy, perhaps violent transitional period, and the Houthis in Yemen continue to blockade the Red Sea. And facing several profound strategic setbacks, Tehran—may very well launch another missile barrage on Israel or race toward a nuclear bomb.
The Biden Administration will bequeath its successor a Middle East on fire. And in the coming weeks, it could get worse. Over the last two months, Iranian-backed militia in Iraq have attacked Israel with drones and cruise missiles on nearly 150 occasions, killing three Israeli soldiers in early October. For its part, Israel has interdicted and absorbed attacks by Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) or Hashd militias since July 2023. Before Inauguration Day, however, Israel may elect to settle the score with these proxies in an effort to establish a modicum of deterrence.
These Hashd militias were established in 2014 after the Islamic State (IS) conquered nearly 1/3 of Iraq, and they participated alongside the Iraqi military and coalition forces during the campaign to liberate the state. Today, these forces include over 70 different factions, including a handful of designated terrorist groups like Harakat al Nujaba, Asaib al Haq, and Kataib Hezbollah, loyal to Iran.
All told, there are some 238,000 men under arms with an annual budget of $3.6bn provided by Baghdad. The Hashd have a dedicated military college, receive pensions on retirement, and have a company capitalised by the government—similar to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Khatam al Anbiya firm—that provides an independent revenue stream for the militants. Notwithstanding Government funding, these Iranian-backed Hashd militias are not answerable to Baghdad.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani is concerned that Israel will retaliate and his country will be dragged into a war. His apprehensions are well-founded. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah attacked Israel, and Lebanon subsequently sustained $8.5bn in damage. To forestall a conflagration, Al Sudani has sought to cajole the PMF to take a hiatus from their attacks. He has also appealed to Tehran to help reign in its Hashd proxies and reportedly asked for assistance from the Biden Administration in restraining Israel.
There is little doubt Al Sudani would like to avoid an Israeli military response. It appears that aside from his diplomatic entreaties, he has taken little action to prevent Hashd assaults. At the same time, Al Sudani continues to pay Hashd salaries, including those of groups aligned with Iran. In 2022, Al Sudani leveraged the political support of these militias to become premier.
To be sure, it would be difficult for Al Sudani to bring the Hashd to heel. His predecessor, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, tried. In the summer of 2020, Al-Kadhimi arrested 15 members of Kataib Hezbollah for firing rockets into the US Embassy in Baghdad. The group responded by surrounding the premier’s home, demanding the release of its detained militiamen. A year later, the Hashd attempted to assassinate Al-Kadhimi with armed drones.
