Despite the hammering it has taken in recent weeks, Hezbollah is expected to maintain its strong presence in Lebanon and the wider region for two key reasons.
The first relates to Lebanon’s sectarian structure. Often mischaracterised as merely an extension of Iran, Hezbollah, in fact, represents a paradigm shift in the collective consciousness of Lebanese Shiites, moving on from a mindset that prevailed in the 1960s and 70s.
Shiites began rebelling against the feudal dominance of certain families—the As’ad, Osseiran, and al-Khalil families, to name three—that had aligned themselves with the post-1943 Lebanese state. They rejected the submissiveness of their leaders and grew dissatisfied with the leftist, Marxist, and nationalist parties that proliferated within their community.
These movements did not address their concerns as effectively as Imam Musa al-Sadr, who institutionalised the Shiite community in the country’s political system and asserted its independence by setting up the Supreme Shiite Islamic Council. The Amal movement, which succeeded Imam Sadr, was initially popular but suffered a critical setback as its focus narrowed on the spoils-sharing game within Lebanon’s sectarian framework.
Read more: The Shiites of pre-war Lebanon
A new prospect
In stark contrast to Amal was the “internationalist” ambitions of the Khomeini project in Iran. This resonated strongly with Lebanese Shiites as it embodied both the universal ideals of Marxism and the distinct religious identity forged in Jabal Amil—a hub of Twelver Shiism globally and home to its foremost scholars. Hezbollah, representing the intersection of local identity and global revolutionary aspirations, quickly drew Shiite allegiance away from the left—a move accentuated by the Soviet Union’s death spiral.
