Hezbollah arms are not the only thing holding Lebanon back

Disarmament is hardly a magical pill that will resolve Lebanon’s myriad problems

Hezbollah arms are not the only thing holding Lebanon back

Portraying Hezbollah’s disarmament and the handover of its weapons to the Lebanese state as the sole obstacle to peace and prosperity is a gross oversimplification of a far more complex reality.

The actual military value of Hezbollah's arsenal is unclear. Last year, Israel significantly diminished the group's capabilities that it had built up over decades. Key systems—including air defence, naval assets, and electronic warfare capabilities—were neutralised within days. Furthermore, its much-touted missile arsenal proved to be an ineffective deterrent as it didn't prevent Israel from inflicting massive destruction on Lebanon—particularly in the south—and also attacking Iran.

Having said that, Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal, however ineffective, still serves a political purpose. It is a means by which the Hezbollah-Amal alliance, known as the Shiite Duo, maintains its dominance over the Lebanese state and exerts control over the Shiite community. This ensures their continued influence over Lebanon and its future.

But despite Israel severely weakening Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still using whatever remains of the group’s weapons arsenal as a pretext to continue to pound Lebanon at will and blackmail its government.

The Lebanese government now faces two choices: the gradual option, which sees Hezbollah give up some arms and retreat from some positions south of the Litani River, or the quick option that requires intense political and military pressure from the state to disarm Hezbollah, risking civil war.

Netanyahu is using whatever remains of Hezbollah's weapons arsenal as a pretext to continue to pound Lebanon at will and blackmail its government

A fools errand

From Hezbollah's standpoint, giving up its arms will weaken the group even further at a time when regional forces are conspiring against it. It finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable position, especially after its supply route via Syria has been severed after the fall of the Assad regime. Therefore, it would be foolish for Hezbollah to give up whatever remaining leverage it holds.

It is naive in the extreme to think that Hezbollah's arms are the only thing standing in the way of a peaceful and prosperous future. Disarmament is hardly a magical pill that will resolve Lebanon's myriad problems. Hezbollah comprises only part of the government, so the state's failure to implement any meaningful reform cannot be blamed on a single party—it's a collective failure.

Therefore, Lebanon will unlikely play a meaningful role in any grand regional plan for a 'new Middle East'. And the plan itself will unlikely bring any sustainable peace to the region, given that it is being championed by an expansionist Israel led by far-right ministers with blood-soaked hands.

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