Whisper it, but the Arab world may be moving towards peace

Iran's strategy has been torpedoed, its resistance axis smashed, while from Syria and Lebanon there are suggestions that peace in this most unpeaceful region could be on the cards.

Whisper it, but the Arab world may be moving towards peace

After years of conflict and drama, is the Middle East now finally inching its way towards peace? The winds of change certainly appear to be blowing in that direction. There are encouraging noises from Syria, and some with Lebanon. Is this one of those once-a-century moments where circumstances align for calm? If so, how did we get here?

For decades, the Middle East has been awash with armed conflict and lofty rhetoric, whether in the name of liberating Palestine, restoring rights, defending Lebanon, or reclaiming the Golan Heights. Yet occasionally and sporadically, there have been those who ventured towards peace, often risking political capital (or more) to do so.

Egyptian President Anwar Sadat tried to initiate Arab-Israeli peace after recognising the limits of Arab military capabilities in the 1973 war, yet this was met with near-unanimous Arab rejection, and he was assassinated a few years later. In the early 1990s, after the First Gulf War once again exposed the boundaries of Arab power (this time through Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait), the Madrid negotiations and the concurrent Israeli-Palestinian peace process implicitly marked a shift.

History of violence

The trend (if there was one) was not to last, and the Second Intifada (2000–04) shattered any illusions. This was strategic misstep, embracing violence and suicide operations against Israel. The result was Israel’s full reoccupation of the West Bank, the erosion of the Palestinian National Authority’s credibility, its descent into internal strife and the bloody schism between Fatah and Hamas. The effects are still being felt today, in the Gaza catastrophe and the effective absence of the Palestinian Authority from the equation.

The American occupation of Iraq paved the way for Iran to establish buffer zones designed to prevent more threats to its heartland, such as it faced during the Iran-Iraq War on 1980-88. This enabled Iran’s sphere of influence—once primarily centred in Lebanon—to expand into Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. Sectarianism, terrorism, and ideology all converged to produce a landscape of ‘states within states.’ Soon, the old slogans of “armed struggle” and “marching to Jerusalem” were being heard again, driven by the conviction that the world only understands the language of force.

There are encouraging noises from Syria, and some with Lebanon. Is this one of those once-a-century moments where circumstances align for calm?

Many saw the region's upheavals as efforts to reshape power dynamics, either to compel Israel into peace negotiations or to precipitate Israel's eventual collapse. Yet the Palestinian armed movement began in 1965, an era shaped by the Cold War. Waves of national liberation movements spread across Asia and Africa, spurred by the ideological fervour of the Cuban Revolution and the Vietnam War.

Confluence of factors

For Palestinian fighters, the Arab defeat of 1967 changed the equation. The armies of traditional Arab regimes had been comprehensively and swiftly defeated. Suddenly, they were no longer the answer to the Palestinian question. More recently, the parties to the armed resistance against Israel, loosely termed the 'Axis of Resistance,' led to disaster, from Gaza to Iran via Lebanon and Yemen.

Today, an uneasy and indistinguishable form of peace hangs over the Middle East, the contours of which remain vague. Yet in Syria and Lebanon, there are new leadership teams that have suggested, tentatively, that this is their preferred direction. After years of turmoil, is peace in the world's least peaceful region now all-but inevitable?

Events have exposed not only the fragility of the 'resistance' narrative and its practices, but also its transformation into a set of projects that perpetuated civil and sectarian wars, draining resources and crippling development. More importantly, events have underscored the urgent need for Arab states at odds with Israel to adopt what might be called a 'strategic pause' in military lexicon.

A victor's peace?

Relentless wars, invasions, assassinations, and destruction have left a deep impact. Some regional states now lack even the minimum level of national cohesion, while others, such as Syria, now feel completely vulnerability to Israel. In Iraq, the privileges enjoyed by the ruling cadre are now thought to be under threat.

Today, an uneasy and indistinguishable form of peace hangs over the Middle East, the contours of which remain vague

The combination of loss or feared loss is pushing regional actors towards an ill-defined peace. Some wonder whether it will it be based on economic or developmental prospects, but there are still far more questions than answers. Asking those questions openly, one should also ask: who benefits? Will this peace raise the living standards of the region's populations, for instance, or just the bank balances of ruling elites?

While the details remain poorly understood, what is known is that rejecting this path means remaining trapped in perpetual internal strife and an endless war with Israel. Importantly, this move toward peace is not just a US–Israeli project, nor even the aspiration of certain Arabs eager to close the chapter on a drawn-out conflict that has brought only disappointment and extinguished dreams. Increasingly, Arab countries are moving in this direction, driven by forces rooted in their own political paralysis and structural dysfunction—realities now impossible to ignore.

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