Why Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon will endure

The once-powerful Shiite group has taken a battering but there are two very big reasons—one local, one regional—why it will remain a feature of the political landscape

Why Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon will endure

Despite the hammering it has taken in recent weeks, Hezbollah is expected to maintain its strong presence in Lebanon and the wider region for two key reasons.

The first relates to Lebanon’s sectarian structure. Often mischaracterised as merely an extension of Iran, Hezbollah, in fact, represents a paradigm shift in the collective consciousness of Lebanese Shiites, moving on from a mindset that prevailed in the 1960s and 70s.

Shiites began rebelling against the feudal dominance of certain families—the As’ad, Osseiran, and al-Khalil families, to name three—that had aligned themselves with the post-1943 Lebanese state. They rejected the submissiveness of their leaders and grew dissatisfied with the leftist, Marxist, and nationalist parties that proliferated within their community.

These movements did not address their concerns as effectively as Imam Musa al-Sadr, who institutionalised the Shiite community in the country’s political system and asserted its independence by setting up the Supreme Shiite Islamic Council. The Amal movement, which succeeded Imam Sadr, was initially popular but suffered a critical setback as its focus narrowed on the spoils-sharing game within Lebanon’s sectarian framework.

Read more: The Shiites of pre-war Lebanon

A new prospect

In stark contrast to Amal was the “internationalist” ambitions of the Khomeini project in Iran. This resonated strongly with Lebanese Shiites as it embodied both the universal ideals of Marxism and the distinct religious identity forged in Jabal Amil—a hub of Twelver Shiism globally and home to its foremost scholars. Hezbollah, representing the intersection of local identity and global revolutionary aspirations, quickly drew Shiite allegiance away from the left—a move accentuated by the Soviet Union’s death spiral.

Israel thinks it can eliminate Hezbollah as a threat, while political opponents salivate at the thought of the group's removal. Both lack realism and foresight.

Hezbollah presented itself as a new type of national liberation movement, blending religious and rural indigenous elements with a fierce anti-occupation stance and advocacy for justice for the mustad'afin (the oppressed).

Its reputation continued to grow after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, but its involvement in the Syrian conflict alongside Bashar al-Assad's Damascus regime did not sit comfortably. For many in the Arab world, this betrayed Hezbollah's sectarian leanings. This perception was compounded by the group's suspected involvement in assassinations and internal conflicts in Lebanon from 2005.

Yet despite losing around 5,000 Lebanese Shiite soldiers in Syria, Shiite support for Hezbollah remained steadfast. Syria was seen as a sacrifice but also as an investment, helping to safeguard Hezbollah's role and status in Lebanon.

Power sharing

Hezbollah has long been sceptical of the power-sharing formula established by the Taif Agreement, which it sees as precarious and insufficient for securing a fair share of power for the Shiite community, given its sacrifices in resisting Israel and countering the so-called "takfiri wave" associated with the Arab revolutions.

For this reason, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah (who was killed this year) repeatedly called for a 'national conference' to reconsider—and potentially redistribute—power among Lebanon's sects. Sunni factions and some Christian groups opposed this, fearing that any adjustment to the governing formula would tilt the balance of power in Hezbollah's favour.

With Israel's recent diminution of Hezbollah, some have sought to capitalise on this politically and remove the group from Lebanon's political equation entirely. They are guilty of a serious miscalculation. There is no viable alternative to replace Hezbollah's determination to uphold Shiites' exceptional status in Lebanon, and relinquishing this status would be exceedingly difficult despite the immense pressures Shiites face in exile and displacement.

Given Lebanon's deep-rooted sectarian sensitivities, Shiites' fear of humiliation and subordination to other sects is likely to intensify, driving a fierce defence of their position and privileges—beginning with resistance against Israel—to secure their community's role and standing.

Tehran's Plan B

The second factor enabling Hezbollah to maintain its role is Iran's evolving strategic posture. With Israel taking aim at Iran's regional proxies, Iran is developing a Plan B that could eventually pivot away from reliance on Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis, and Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces.

Fear of subordination to other sects drives Shiites to secure their community's role and standing—beginning with resistance against Israel

This Plan B is likely to turbocharge Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against Israeli attack, in some respects emulating North Korea's approach. Yet it is no easy task to replace Iran's extensive external protection network, built over decades and at considerable expense. This network, comprising armed proxies wielding influence in several states, has been a cornerstone of Iran's regional power.

Furthermore, an effective nuclear deterrent requires much more than a single successful detonation. It depends on capable delivery mechanisms, whether launched from land, sea, or air. These are capabilities that Iran has only partially developed. Its economic situation also poses a challenge and it may not be feasible to allocate substantial resources to a military nuclear programme that both the US and Israel have vowed to prevent, by force if necessary.

In the meantime, when it comes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, there is a lot of wishful thinking. Israel thinks it can eliminate it as a threat, while Hezbollah's political opponents salivate at the thought of a power vacuum if it is removed. Both lack realism and foresight. Hezbollah, although greatly diminished, is likely to retain its local and regional role, as Lebanon faces the arduous task of rebuilding from the destruction currently being wrought by Israel.

font change