Is Araghchi trying to save Gaza and Lebanon...or Iran?

Potential backers

This increases the importance of the second category of countries—potential backers. These are regional states whose relations with Israel are tense, either because of its brutal wars in Gaza and Lebanon or for other reasons.

In such states, which include Egypt and Turkey, Araghchi will have sought to leverage his host's grievances with Israel into support for Iran's position at a tense moment. At the time of writing, Israel is still preparing its long-awaited response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks against Israel in October, which in turn was a response to Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

In Turkey to attend the 3+3 South Caucasus regional conference, Araghchi will have known all about Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lambasting Israel's war on Lebanon and Gaza, even calling for the use of force to stop it.

He will also know that Egypt is at loggerheads with Israel over the latter's occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor, a strategic stretch of land on the border between Gaza and the Egyptian peninsula of Sinai. Egypt sees Israel's comprehensive destruction of Gaza and its starvation of the population as designed to force two million Palestinians into Sinai.  Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has repeatedly said this is a red line for Cairo.

Yet although Egyptian-Israeli relations are tense, their peace treaty has now lasted almost half a century, and there is a great deal of security coordination between the two, both in the immediate vicinity and across the region. Together with the US and Qatar, Egypt also plays a peacemaker role, seeking to broker ceasefires and prisoner/hostage exchange deals. In the wake of Sinwar's killing, those efforts will have picked up.

Is Egypt a potential friend? It was telling that when his plane landed at Cairo International Airport late on 16 October, Araghchi did not find his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdel Ati, waiting on the tarmac to receive him. The following day, a grim-faced Abdel Ati told Araghchi that action was needed to prevent a "catastrophic (regional) confrontation." Hours earlier, el-Sisi had made much the same point.

In regards to Lebanon, Egypt and Iran are on different pages. Iran has spent 40 years bolstering Hezbollah, a non-state Lebanese actor, to threaten Israel from the north, while Cairo wants the Lebanese Army to move into (Hezbollah strongholds in) southern Lebanon, along Israel's border.  Abdel Ati knows that Iranian support for Hezbollah—and the militia's meddling in Lebanese affairs—has so far made it impossible for the Lebanese Army to extend its control to the south, as per UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

This will have contributed to the cold reception Araghchi got in Cairo, together with the heavy toll that war is having on Egypt, with Houthi attacks on merchant shipping still forcing the vessels around Africa instead of through Egypt's Suez Canal, depriving Cairo of vital dollar revenue.

Potential mediators

Araghchi's remarks have been telling. On 13 October, in Baghdad, he said Iran was fully prepared for war. Days later, he said Iran did not want war but peace. There is truth to both. If cornered, Iran will fight for its survival.

That shone a light on Araghchi's visit to the third group of countries—potential mediators. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Jordan fall into this category. Among his questions, Araghchi wanted to know if they would let Israel use their airspace to attack the Islamic Republic and if these states would be prepared to use their influence when it came to Israel's expected response. Araghchi is mindful of the weight these states hold, including in their close contacts with the US.

Iran's foreign minister, in turn, will have been asked what his country can offer. These states certainly have strong vested interests in re-establishing regional calm and avoiding all-out war. As to who will come to Iran's rescue if it does fall into the abyss, that remains an awkward silence.