This is not the first time that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has hinted at a possible departure from the influence of Iran, in whose debt he has been since 2011, when Iranian proxy militia Hezbollah rescued his regime. There is every chance that this will be another such storm in a teacup, but at the same time, there is every chance this will be a rupture that lasts. After all, few need to be reminded that the situation on the ground has changed dramatically.
Israel has taken a sledgehammer to Hezbollah, by far Iran’s most powerful militia, while Tel Aviv and Tehran have now struck each other directly, most recently with an Iranian shower of ballistic missiles. Israel’s response is awaited.
Today, with al-Assad being tentatively readmitted to the Arab camp, he has signalled his possible realignment. Will he unravel this long-standing partnership, or is he simply sending mixed signals to test the waters of regional diplomacy Moreover, if al-Assad does decide that this is the right time to extract himself from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s orbit, how might the Iranians react? In the past, they have never hesitated to silence allies or proxies who defy them.
Allies’ first embrace
A closer examination of the historical milestones that have defined the Damascus-Tehran relationship may offer insight. After the Iranian Revolution’s triumph in 1979, President Hafez al-Assad—who notably refused to receive Ayatollah Khomeini during his years of opposition—opened a new chapter with the emerging Islamic regime in Tehran. He was quick to leverage the fact that several key figures in the new Iranian leadership, who had been exiled during the Shah’s reign, had lived in Lebanon, where Syria held great sway.
Sensing an opportunity, al-Assad dispatched his foreign minister, Abdel Halim Khaddam, to establish ties with the new Iranian government and its spiritual leader. Their relations quickly evolved into a pivotal regional alliance.
At the time, Syria looked vulnerable. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein threatened from the east, Israel threatened from the south, while Cairo had just made peace with Tel Aviv, so the Syrian leader knew he needed an ally. He made the strategic decision to side with Khomeinist Iran against Saddam’s Iraq in their war from 1980-88. Forged out of necessity and shared enmity, that alliance became a cornerstone of both countries’ foreign policies, shaping the political landscape of the Middle East for decades.
A balancing act
When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, al-Assad helped Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) set up Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley, close to the Syrian border. It later expanded into southern Lebanon, embedding itself in the Shiite communities along Israel’s borders.
Members of Hezbollah’s earlier manifestation were responsible for the devastating 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 American soldiers and 58 French military personnel. This put them on the map—and in the crosshairs.
