Allegations by the commander of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that Egypt staged air strikes against his troops in the Blue Nile City of Sennar are expected to have far-reaching implications for Cairo. The allegations were made by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemedti, who has been fighting the Sudanese army since April last year, creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that has displaced ten million Sudanese.
In a recorded video that aired on 9 October, Hemedti said advanced Egyptian fighter jets had killed a large number of RSF troops in Sennar. He accused Egypt of training the Sudanese army led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. In recent days, the army has recorded some much-needed victories against the RSF, recapturing several key areas, including in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum.
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, which has supported al-Burhan, denied Hemedti’s allegations and said it only wants to end the war and respond to the humanitarian needs of the Sudanese people, who face famine.
Old animosities
There is no love lost between the RSF and Egypt. Indeed, as Sudan’s civil war erupted, dozens of Egyptian troops were on a joint training mission with the Sudanese army at al-Merowe airbase in northern Sudan. Capturing the base, the RSF took the Egyptians hostage, sharing videos of their capture, with reports that the RSF also destroyed some Egyptian MiG-29 fighter planes in Sudan for training. The troops were later released.
Hemedti also accused Tigrayan, Eritrean, Azerbaijani and Ukrainian mercenaries of being in Sudan and said Iran was also helping the army. He has accused Egypt of aiding the Sudanese army before, but critics point out that he does so most notably when his troops suffer defeats.
Egypt’s leadership distrusts non-state actors, supporting national armies and preferring state institutions instead. In Libya, Somalia, and Syria, Egypt has sided with national armies against parallel militias or entities, refusing to open communication channels with the latter.
This policy can minimise Egypt's influence in countries where non-state actors hold sway. In Lebanon, for instance, Egypt's contact with Hezbollah is almost non-existent, so it has little impact on the country.
"Egypt has always been keen to establish relations with central governments," said Ahmed Haggag, a retired Egyptian diplomat and former assistant secretary general of the Organisation of African Unity, speaking to Al Majalla. "As an Egyptian policy, this dates back decades."
Even while mediating between the Palestinians and the Israelis, often alongside Qatar and the US, Cairo treats Hamas as merely a Palestinian faction and considers the Palestinian Authority (PA) to be the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
When Palestinian factions—including Hamas—met in Cairo a few days ago, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel A'ti only met the delegation of Fatah, the movement of PA President Mahmoud Abbas. In Sudan, the same policy upsets the RSF, which wants Egypt to treat it on equal footing with the Sudanese army led by al-Burhan, to whom Cairo has rolled out the red carpet (Hemedti, by contrast, has not been invited).
Underlying reasons
By blaming Egypt, Hemedti might have been trying to distract from or explain the heavy losses his troops have suffered. He may also have been acting on the advice of one of his regional sponsors, who stand to benefit from undermining Egyptian influence. Another reason for the animosity between Egypt and the RSF may come from Ethiopia's support for the RSF and close connections between Hemedti and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Cairo and Addis Ababa are bitter rivals and are currently at odds over Ethiopia's construction of a giant hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River—Egypt's prime source of fresh water. To encircle Ethiopia, Egypt has been sending arms to neighbouring Somalia.
For most of the past 18 months, the RSF has had the upper hand on the battlefield and now controls almost the whole of Darfur. However, in recent days, it has suffered losses, including in the strategic Jebel Moya region near the southeastern state of Sennar. The Jebel Moya range is less than 300km south of Khartoum and connects Sennar with the White Nile, Al-Gezira, and the Blue Nile states. By recapturing it, the Sudanese army can now move towards North Kurdufan and Darfur.
Sudanese political researcher Magdi Abdel Aziz said Hemedti's accusations against Egypt "are tantamount to a confession of defeat". Speaking to Al Majalla, he said: "The latest victories tip the balance remarkably in favour of the Sudanese army."
