While global attention is fixed on Israel's escalating attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, another potential regional conflict is quietly simmering in the background. The trigger for this brewing tension came on 20 September, when an air strike, believed to be carried out by Israel, killed a commander of Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah faction in Syria. Unlike the more frequent targeted killings of Hezbollah and Iranian commanders, Israel’s deliberate assassination of an Iraqi commander is a rare, if not unprecedented, move.
In turn, this event prompted a sharp escalation in retaliatory strikes by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) against Israel. Not only have the attacks increased in intensity, but the alliance has also achieved a higher success rate in infiltrating Israeli-held territory and hitting their targets. These developments— particularly the growing threat posed by the IRI to Israel—have set both sides on an escalatory path, potentially leading to increased violence in Iraq and Syria, where the alliance is active.
Before exploring the consequences of this escalation, it’s crucial to understand why Israel targeted the Kataib Hezbollah commander with a drone strike on his vehicle near Damascus airport in the early hours of 20 September. The IRI has claimed responsibility for approximately 167 attacks on Israeli targets between November 2023 and September 25, 2024, making it difficult to pinpoint the exact reason. However, two recent developments may offer some insight.
Key developments
The first is a trend observed in September 2024, where the IRI saw a marked increase in the success rate of its attacks infiltrating Israeli-held territory. Until August 2024, only 18% of the group’s claimed attacks were intercepted by the Israeli army, while many of the remaining claims lacked concrete evidence, leading to speculation that they were exaggerated for media impact.
