In a coordinated attack across Lebanon and parts of Syria, hundreds of pagers used by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah simultaneously exploded on Tuesday, killing more than a dozen people and injuring thousands of others. No group has claimed responsibility, but the overwhelmingly likely culprit is Israel. Israel’s multifront war has broadened, including not only Hamas in Gaza but also Iran and its Axis of Resistance—a collection of proxy groups that includes Hezbollah.
Many are wondering why now. Is there a broader significance to the timing of the attack? Israel has said preventing Hezbollah attacks is among its war goals, despite warnings from the United States against a wider operation that could lead to all-out regional war. The pager attack could very well be the opening salvo to a prolonged Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon—or it could just be the latest clandestine operation in the long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran’s proxies. It is also possible that the Israelis triggered the operation because there was a time limit on how long it could continue undiscovered.
For Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, the attack may go a long way toward polishing a reputation badly tarnished by failures around Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel. The pager operation itself seems out of a spy novel. There are myriad hypotheses circulating about how Mossad could have pulled off an attack this large and this dramatic. We don’t yet know whether bombs were implanted at the manufacturing stage or whether the supply chain was compromised at another phase in the process.
Hezbollah relied on antiquated means of communication, such as pagers, possibly believing they were beyond the reach of Israel’s cyber warriors. Following the 7 October attack, Hezbollah personnel largely sought to eschew the use of cell phones, with the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, urging fighters to instead use alternative methods of communication.
Some have speculated that malware injected into the devices could have caused the batteries to overheat and then, ultimately, the devices to explode. However, the attack was organised; it was done so with meticulous planning and attention to detail. Apart from the immediate impact of the attack, the capabilities demonstrated will render Hezbollah increasingly paranoid and uncertain of exactly what Mossad might pull off next.
Hezbollah will likely follow this attack with a comprehensive overhaul of its internal security apparatus, reviewing where the gaps in its operational security exist and attempting to shore up the tradecraft of its members. There could even be an internal purge for moles, a hunt that could lead to bloodletting within Hezbollah—an added bonus for Israel's spooks.
