Israel and Hezbollah return to their corners after the latest round

Many will have breathed a sigh of relief after Sunday's flare-up, with both sides claiming victory and both expressing no desire to escalate. Their rhetoric has left plenty of room for more, however

Israel and Hezbollah return to their corners after the latest round

As military escalations go, the latest round of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict was a more measured bout, neither side going all-out in their quest to hurt the other.

For those hoping for a more controlled and measured ramp-up of tension, Sunday’s fireworks will have been pleasing, not least because the undertakings of both did not significantly deviate from existing rules of engagement.

However, for those who fear that the region is on the brink of a much broader war, the exchanged volleys will do nothing to calm the nerves. Likewise, a Hamas missile targeting Tel Aviv will cause concern.

Predictably, both Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had different interpretations following the strikes and raids on Sunday. Crucially, both had something to show their publics.

Strike and counterstrike

Israel says got wind that something was being planned and launched pre-emptive strikes against myriad Hezbollah positions, to prevent it from achieving its objectives and thwart “a significant part of the attack”.

Hezbollah’s response had long been expected, ever since Israel assassinated its senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, in southern Beirut.

For those hoping for a more controlled and measured ramp-up of tension, Sunday's fireworks will have been pleasing

Israel's armed forces said around 100 of its fighter jets targeted and destroyed "thousands of Hezbollah platforms in southern Lebanon". It said Hezbollah planned to launch rockets and drones from the sites later that day.

Hezbollah's narrative is that its military operation for this phase "was completed and accomplished", adding that it launched 340 Katyusha rockets at 12 Israeli military sites, as well as sites in northern Israel and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

"We identified the Glilot base as the primary target of our operation," said Nasrallah. "It houses Unit 8200, which is responsible for intelligence gathering and espionage."

The base, which is well protected, is 110km from the Lebanese border and less than 2km from Tel Aviv. Israel said the site was not hit, adding that Hezbollah managed to launch 230 rockets and 20 drones.

Diplomatic dampening

Each side can now declare victory after a 'limited and controlled' clash, which itself followed a series of diplomatic interventions, especially by the Americans, following Shukr's killing on 30 July.

Israel's armed forces said around 100 of its fighter jets targeted and destroyed "thousands of Hezbollah platforms in southern Lebanon"

Hezbollah made a point of saying it had only targeted Israeli military sites, and in the immediate aftermath, both Israel and Hezbollah said they had no desire to escalate.

The arrival of major American military assets—including aircraft carriers Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln—in the Middle East had been designed to reassure Israel and send a message to Iran and its proxies.

At the same time, Gen. Charles Brown, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, flew into Tel Aviv, while the CIA director William Burns flew to Cairo for the latest round of negotiations regarding a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in Gaza.

Leaving the door open

Some elements to Sunday's rattling of sabres will be of concern, including Hezbollah's description of its launches having been "an initial response". Taken at face value, this suggests that there is more to come.  

Whether this comes from Hezbollah or Iran remains to be seen. Tehran has vowed to avenge the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, just hours after he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Hezbollah said Sunday was "an initial response", suggesting more to come. Whether this comes from Hezbollah or Iran remains to be seen

Similarly, Netanyahu said Israel had not "had its last word", warning Hezbollah and Iran that Sunday was "another step towards changing the situation in the north and bringing our people safely back to their homes". He added: "This is not the end of the story."

Still, despite the tough talk, many breathed a sigh of relief, give the real prospect that the warring sides would opening a new front across the Israel-Lebanon border. After the horrors of Gaza, that is the last thing the region wants.

All eyes are now on Cairo, in the hope of a much needed ceasefire deal that leads to an exchange of prisoners. Until then, as the bell goes and both fighters return to their corners, the Middle East breathes again.

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