Pager attack casts ominous shadow on Lebanon’s future

A war between Israel and Hezbollah could bring about unprecedented horror and will likely result in the group tightening its grip on Lebanese government and society

Pager attack casts ominous shadow on Lebanon’s future

On Tuesday, Israeli forces employed advanced technology to target Hezbollah members by detonating their pagers. Hezbollah had believed that using pagers would safeguard them from the vulnerabilities of mobile phone hacking. The sophistication of this technology is difficult for even experts to grasp, let alone ordinary citizens.

Whether these were new devices or older models whose batteries were remotely triggered by Israeli forces is ultimately of little consequence. What truly matters—beyond the technical intricacies of how Israel infiltrated and then detonated thousands of communication devices in Lebanon and Syria, causing them to explode—is that innocent people were among those killed.

New nature of conflict

The pager attack showcases just how advanced Israel’s tech and intel capabilities are and casts an ominous shadow over Lebanon’s future. The war looming on the horizon could bring about unprecedented horror. From the capture of hundreds of Hezbollah fighters to the assassination of military commander Fuad Shukr and the storming and destruction of the party's scientific research centre in Masyaf, Syria, this new phase of conflict heralds challenges Lebanon has never before faced—in both scale and nature.

These realities, coupled with the recent threats from a Hezbollah official to assassinate any Lebanese president not approved by the group, paint a grim picture of the country's future. Lebanon is facing the possibility of both internal collapse and external aggression—both equally devastating scenarios.

The Lebanese are tired and don't want war. Hezbollah's vitriol against those who question the group for dragging Lebanon into war with Israel can no longer be tolerated.

Hezbollah's refusal to allow the political vacuum to be filled by anyone other than someone aligned with its agenda has created a vicious cycle of despair and devastation. If history is any indication, any Hezbollah war with Israel will likely result in the group tightening its grip on the Lebanese government and society—just as the country witnessed following the July 2006 war when the group invaded Beirut to assert its control over the state.

Elusive goal

Hezbollah's vitriol against those who question the group for dragging Lebanon into war with Israel can no longer be tolerated. The Lebanese are tired and don't want war. Outside Hezbollah's inner circle, no one buys the "greater goal" that the group ostensibly pursues. With each passing day, this "greater goal" grows ever more elusive, clouded by regional complexities cooked up in faraway cities.

But what about those in Lebanon who want to prioritise their children's lives over ideological commitments? Do they get a say?

Lebanon is spiralling out of control in ways that are truly difficult to grasp, and a viable solution to rescue its people from the abyss seems to be slipping further away—with every assassination, missile salvo, and exploded pager.

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