If there is one thing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has learned from his long career as Israel’s leading political figure, it’s that timing is everything. When opportunities are there, seize them. But more importantly, if the circumstances are against you, drag your feet, postpone, and kick the can down the road as far as possible. Delay and wait for better circumstances, even if that means worsening the crisis. If you just wait, the stars may align once again. This simple strategy has saved Netanyahu many times and is one he hopes to use again to extricate himself from the worst crisis he has ever faced. Netanyahu has often been thought to be “finished”—but he just waited out the storm.
In late May, the embattled prime minister received the first sign that his strategy may be working. A poll showed that, for the first time, Israelis preferred Netanyahu over his main challenger, Benny Gantz. Gantz entered the government in October but was—at the time—signalling his decision to resign. Until this specific poll, Gantz had been leading polls by a large margin. In December last year, Gantz was far ahead of Netanyahu, with 45% of Israelis preferring the former Israeli defence minister, while only 27% of respondents preferred Netanyahu.
The poll was the clearest, but not the only sign of waning support for Gantz. To be sure, Gantz’s party was (and still is) ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud. But the gap between the two has dwindled from its peak in December, when Gantz’s party had a whopping 19-seat lead over Netanyahu, to a close four seats in some of the latest polls. The drop in support for Netanyahu’s main opponent comes as Gantz sought to pull off a difficult manoeuvre: extricating himself from the unity government he joined eight months ago.
Eight months ago, days after one of the worst attacks in Israel’s history, Gantz joined Netanyahu, claiming that he was putting “Israel first”. This was not an easy choice, but one that has paid off for several months, as Gantz continued to rank high in the polls. By doing so, Gantz federated around him both the growing ranks of those disillusioned by Netanyahu’s poor leadership as well as a wide segment of Israelis who felt that politics had to take a back seat as Israel responded to the Hamas attacks.
Gantz's departure from the war cabinet carries with it significant risk: withdrawing is easy, but doing so unscathed politically will be a tour de force. Some of his supporters were disappointed that he left, while others believe he should have left months ago.
Bad timing
Here, timing is essential. In May, Gantz first announced his intention to exit the government. In a speech, Gantz issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu, demanding that Netanyahu's government draft a plan that would meet six key objectives, including rescuing the hostages, creating an alternative to the Hamas government in Gaza, enabling the return of Israelis displaced by the conflict along the border with Lebanon, and moving to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia. It took only a few hours for Netanyahu to reject the ultimatum.
Gadi Eizenkot, a former Israeli army Chief of Staff and a key ally of Benny Gantz, recommended Gantz immediately leave the war cabinet. Gantz refused and gave Netanyahu three more weeks. During this time, Netanyahu was able to wrest back the narrative, helped by events across Israel and in Gaza.
In the span of three weeks, the situation got worse for Gantz. First, Israel was hit with a series of international condemnations, including news that the ICC Prosecutor was seeking arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant. This was not good news for Netanyahu, to be sure. But it also meant that Gantz would leave the government as Israel’s standing in the world was at its worst—which looked bad.
Then northern Israel burnt (quite literally) as Hezbollah intensified its attacks amidst a heatwave. Multiple Israeli officials have warned that a “decision” on Lebanon—a possible full-scale war—could soon be made. Gantz not being in government during a war with Hezbollah makes him look bad. His opponents will try to paint him as someone who puts politics first—even though this accusation is more fitting for Netanyahu. But optics are important in politics. Meanwhile, the war in Gaza is at a critical juncture as Israel now operates deeper inside Rafah.
Then came the last straw: On the very day Benny Gantz was supposed to announce his dramatic departure from the government, as his set deadline expired, an Israeli operation led to the rescue of four Israeli hostages, forcing Gantz to delay his announcement. Just a day earlier, Gantz had met with some of the families of hostages to face the latent anger and frustration of those who have been waiting for eight months for their loved ones to come back.
This is something Netanyahu himself has refused to do publicly. However, hours later, Netanyahu was quick to visit the four rescued hostages, showing himself to be a fair-weather friend—always here in times of joy, ever absent in times of need.
The father of one of the Israeli soldiers who died in captivity in Gaza noted bitterly, “When it ends badly, the prime minister doesn’t come. He also doesn’t call”. But again, Netanyahu was there to celebrate a victory after months of doing everything to avoid responsibility for the massive failure that was 7 October.
Political battle intensifies
Now that Gantz has finally extricated himself from the government, the political battle for Israel’s future will intensify. Gantz’s departure does not guarantee that Netanyahu’s government will collapse: The coalition led by the Israeli Prime Minister still has a majority at the Knesset.
Gantz and the Israeli opposition led by Yair Lapid will have to find defectors within coalition ranks to replace the current government. This won’t be easy, as Netanyahu has surrounded himself with “yes men”, some of whom appear utterly detached from reality. Miri Regev, Israel’s transportation minister, praised the government just a few days ago for doing “wonderful things”, gawking at the fact that “so many people are in hotels, all funded by the government”, when referring to the tens of thousands of displaced Israelis whose homes have been destroyed or made unsafe.
Others have been openly or quietly critical of Netanyahu. Chiefly among them is Defence Minister Gallant, whom Gantz specifically mentioned in his resignation speech, calling him to “do the right thing.” Tensions are also rising within the ruling coalition amidst a religious push to advance two bills—one to expand the influence of the Religious Ministry and the other to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service—at a time when Israel is facing unprecedented security challenges.
Several of Netanyahu’s party members have expressed public opposition to these laws, forcing Netanyahu to backtrack on the first one—at least for now. But Netanyahu needs to press on, as religious parties have warned they could leave the government.
This means that a scenario in which the Netanayahu-led government collapses by itself shouldn’t be ruled out as internal tensions mount. However, the government's current factions generally fear elections, knowing they have much to lose and nearly nothing to gain. The religious parties may fare better in elections because of how disciplined their supporters are.
Still, they have nothing to gain from a government change: An alternative government backed by mostly secular parties would be far less likely to give them the same kind of concessions Netanyahu is willing to approve. Short of a political strategy, the opposition to Netanyahu will be confined to passively waiting for his own government to collapse upon itself—which may simply not happen.
