The Horn of Africa is well known as one of the world's most strategically important and volatile regions, and recent international agreements reached this year have further underscored its importance.
A memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, signed in January, and an agreement reached around the same time by Turkey and Somalia has stirred up international politics in the region, becoming emblematic of a complex state of affairs on the ground.
Much of the difficulty relates to geography in general and access to the sea in particular. The safety of navigation and ocean access are major elements in diplomatic relations around the Horn of Africa and are of major global strategic importance.
Bab-el-Mandeb is the southern entry/exit point of the shortest sea route from Europe to Asia, which accounts for around 12% of world trade. However, it has been disrupted by piracy and the Houthis’ targeting of cargo ships carrying consumer goods and energy supplies.
Ethiopia has been landlocked since 1993 when Eritrea seceded following the civil war. It is now the most populous nation in the world with no direct access to the sea.
Ethiopia's inability to control at least a small part of the 800-kilometre coastline that fell out of its jurisdiction has pushed the current prime minister to engage in a diplomatic effort to repair the impact of his predecessor's decision.
While Ethiopia reached a deal with Djibouti to use its port, it is not the same as having its own coastline and port.
To get permanent access to the sea, Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland in January 2024. In return, Addis Ababa promised to recognise the former British colony as a nation. This would make Ethiopia the first country to do so since Somaliland’s unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.
However, the deal proved controversial at home and in the wider region. Somaliland’s defence minister resigned in protest, and the African Union voiced concern that it would raise tensions.
Read more: Why Ethiopia's Red Sea ambitions unnerve Egypt
Somalia concerns
A third neighbouring nation—Somalia, one of the main countries in the region, with a 3,300 km long coastline and rich onshore and offshore resources—was particularly unhappy.
It has struggled to make the most of its economic potential, hit with famine and drought, and is the 11th poorest nation in the world.
Somalia objects to any potential new source of geopolitical tension after the al-Shabaab organisation—an al-Qaeda affiliate—led the country into chaos and destruction in the 1990s.
At the same time, it has boosted relations with an emerging influence in the region: Turkey. This adds an additional layer of complexity to regional tensions.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is getting help from Ankara as he prioritised wiping out al-Shabaab. He has scored some successes, but the terror organisation still retains much of its capabilities.
The group has territorial control in parts of central and southern Somalia and has been carrying out terrorist attacks across the country, especially in and around the capital, Mogadishu.
Somalia has received assistance from several countries, including the UAE, the US, and Turkey, and has signed agreements with them to improve its army's operational capabilities.
The army will have even more responsibilities when the African Union Transition Mission withdraws by the end of 2024.
Turkey's success in Africa is largely attributed to its win-win-based approach, as opposed to how colonial powers exploited the continent over the course of history.
