Regional turmoil prompts radical rethink in US Mideast strategy

The US now recognises the need to contain Iran — an approach that will require it to maintain a significant military presence in the region for the foreseeable future

AFP

Members of Iraq's PMF keep guard on 8 February, 2024, during the funeral of Abu Baqr al-Saadi, a prominent leader in the Kataeb Hezbollah who was killed in an American drone strike on his car in Baghdad a day earlier.

Regional turmoil prompts radical rethink in US Mideast strategy

Con Coughlin

last update on 09 Feb 2024

The radical rethink taking place in the Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East could result in a profound reset in Washington’s strategy for dealing with the many challenges the region faces.

It was only a few weeks ago that, as part of US President Joe Biden’s to scale down America’s presence, US officials were actively engaged in negotiations with the Iraqi authorities to agree a time frame for the withdrawal of the remaining American forces still based in the country.

Indeed, Washington may still be obliged to rethink its military dispositions in Iraq after its drone strike in Baghdad that killed members of the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia — including a top commander — said to be responsible for carrying out recent attacks against US forces.

The attack on Wednesday night prompted a furious response from the Iraqi government, which openly criticised the US for straining relations between the two countries, describing the attack as a “clear-cut assassination” that amounted to a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

Reuters — A car burns, following what the US military says was a deadly American drone strike on a Kataib Hezbollah commander, in Baghdad, Iraq, February 7, 2024.

“This path pushes the Iraqi government, more than ever before, to end the mission of this coalition, which has become a factor of instability,” read a statement issued by a senior Iraqi official.

Irrespective of whether US forces remain in Iraq, though, it is clear that, in the wake of the recent attack by an Iranian-backed militia on a US base in northern Jordan last month that killed three US military personnel, Washington is having a serious rethink about its long-term involvement in the region.

Not only did the attack on the Jordan base result in the US launching a wave of attacks against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, but it has prompted the Biden administration to review its approach to Iran and the threat it continues to pose to the stability of the region.

Iranian threat

Apart from providing the military support to Hamas that enabled it to launch its devastating attack against Israel on 7 October, Iran is also supporting a number of other militant groups in the region.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen, for example, have been responsible for targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Hezbollah in south Lebanon, which continues to threaten Israel’s northern border.

The attack on the US base in Jordan prompted the Biden administration to view its approach to Iran and the threat it continues to pose to the stability of the region.

With the White House deeply involved in negotiations to arrange a ceasefire in Gaza to address the deepening humanitarian crisis that is unfolding as a result of Israel's military offensive, US officials also recognise the need to contain Iran and prevent it from causing more unrest in the region.

This approach will require Washington to maintain a significant military presence in the region for the foreseeable future.

US military presence

Before the 7 October attacks, the Biden administration appeared determined to scale down its regional involvement. The only policy goal of any significance that it pursued was its commitment to reviving the nuclear deal with Iran.

Washington's determination to scale down its military involvement in the Middle East meant that officials were prepared to open negotiations with the Iraqis about the removal of US forces even after the 7 October attacks had taken place.

Currently, there are about 2,500 US troops still deployed in Iraq as part of the coalition that was formed in 2014 to help the Iraqi government tackle the Islamic State (IS).

But, since the defeat of IS, Iraqi officials have called for the withdrawal of coalition forces — especially after a US air strike in January 2020 killed Iranian top commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis outside Baghdad airport.

However, judging by the renewed interest the Biden administration is showing in reviving relations with key regional allies, it looks as though Washington is planning to maintain its presence, irrespective of whether US forces physically remain in Iraq.

US officials now recognise the need to contain Iran — an approach that will require Washington to maintain a significant military presence in the region for the foreseeable future.

The Biden Doctrine

In what some US commentators are calling the new Biden Doctrine for the Middle East, US officials are now examining options to address the multifront war that has developed in the region involving Israel, Iran and Hamas.

According to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, known for his close relations with the Biden administration, the new US approach would have three main elements.

The first major shift in Washington's approach would be to adopt a far more resolute stand on the Iran issue, including robust military retaliation if Iran's proxies continue with their attacks against the US and its allies.

Another important element would be to initiate an unprecedented US diplomatic initiative to promote a Palestinian state, involving some form of US recognition of a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The notion of supporting the creation of an independent Palestinian state while the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas shows no sign of abating might appear premature.

AFP — People walk on Al-Oyoun Street amid the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment on Gaza City on February 3, 2024.

The idea, for example, that Hamas could emerge as the leader of a new Palestinian entity once the fighting is over would be unpalatable to many because of its involvement in the 7 October attacks.

But Washington clearly believes that, in order to pressure the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting the notion of Palestinian statehood, restating Washington's commitment to a two-state solution is essential.

In addition, Friedman claims Washington is giving serious consideration to vastly expanding its security alliance with Saudi Arabia, which might also involve Saudi normalisation of relations with Israel, a diplomatic initiative that was already in play prior to the 7 October attacks.

Read more: On the normalisation question

The implementation of such a strategy would certainly amount to a complete turnaround in the Biden administration's approach when it appeared the White House had little interest in maintaining ties with key allies in the region.

But a combination of the deteriorating security situation in the region — much of which has been caused by the hostile activities of Iranian-backed militias — together with the emergency of Russia and China to challenge Washington's traditional hegemony in the region, has clearly required the White House to undertake a radical rethink of its policy objectives.

Its conclusions have the potential to redefine Washington's approach to the region for many years to come.

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