Gaza ceasefire proposal paves path to comprehensive peace

After taking steps to recognise a Palestinian state, the US and Saudi Arabia could resume negotiations on a comprehensive defence agreement.

Majalla:AFP:DPA

Al Majalla obtains draft agreement on Gaza ceasefire that includes a prisoner exchange, an intensification of humanitarian aid, the recognition of a Palestinian state, and regional security agreements.

Gaza ceasefire proposal paves path to comprehensive peace

Ibrahim Hamidi

last update on 06 Feb 2024

Major regional and international powers are intensifying their efforts to turn a set of ideas into a detailed and interconnected action plan to end the war in Gaza.

It would begin with a 45-day ceasefire in Gaza and conclude with a major regional-international agreement before June, when the focus of American institutions, especially Congress, will turn to the presidential elections in November.

These ideas will be implemented in three stages: a ceasefire in Gaza, a political track involving Israelis and Palestinians, and a regional-international agreement.

CIA Director William Burns held talks with Israeli, Qatari, and Egyptian security and political officials in Paris to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Al Majalla has obtained the draft text of said agreement.

Stage 1: Prisoner swap

The first step would see the release of hostages under the age of 19, Israeli women and the sick and elderly – in exchange for a specified number of imprisoned Palestinians.

In exchange for a temporary cessation of military operations, Israeli aerial reconnaissance, and the relocation of Israeli forces outside densely populated areas, there would be an intensified push to get humanitarian aid in, reconstruct hospitals across Gaza, allow the United Nations and its agencies to provide humanitarian services, and establish shelters for civilians.

The exact quantity of aid is still being determined, but the aid would include essentials like food and fuel and would be allowed in on a daily basis and allowed to reach all parts of Gaza, including the northern areas.

This temporary cessation would allow parties to complete the exchange of detainees and prisoners whose names are on pre-approved lists.

The proposal aims to turn the temporary pause into a permanent ceasefire that would see Israel pull its army out of Gaza and displaced Palestinians safely return to their homes.

The second stage would see the release of all male detainees (civilians and conscripts) in exchange for a specified number of Palestinian prisoners and the continuation of humanitarian efforts to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians.

The third stage would see the initiation of indirect talks on the necessary requirements to restore a more permanent calm. An exchange of bodies and remains would happen in this stage, as well as the continuation of humanitarian activities.

Egypt sent this draft of the agreement to the leaders of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), who are studying its text to relay their position to Cairo.

The proposal aims to turn the temporary pause into a permanent ceasefire that would see Israel pull its army out of Gaza and displaced Palestinians safely return to their homes.

AFP — Israeli soldiers towing a tank stuck in the mud February 5, 2024 in Gaza.

Hamas and PIJ are expected to send their official response to the proposal to Egyptian mediators very soon.

Last year, Cairo played a pivotal role in negotiating a temporary pause and hostage swap. The US-Egypt-Qatar sponsored agreement also put forth a plan for Gaza's 'day after' that would see Hamas relinquish control in exchange for a complete cessation of fire.

Under this scenario, a non-factional technocratic government would be put in place to rule over Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Stage 2: Political framework

The US and Arab countries want to use the temporary pause to make progress on a more permanent ceasefire agreement, which would address important issues, including:

Pressuring Israel to halt incitement in the occupied West Bank and restrain settler violence.
Declaring Western political stances regarding recognition of the Palestinian state.
Reforming the Palestinian Authority and forming a technocratic government to govern the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Implementing the Oslo Agreement by transferring tax funds to pay the salaries of Palestinian Authority employees.
Exploring the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and deploying observers to ensure security.

AFP — Palestinians walk on Al-Oyoun Street amid the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment on Gaza City on February 3, 2024.

US President Joe Biden has appointed a team to put together a draft document on a more comprehensive political solution. These Biden Standards follow the tradition of the Clinton Parameters, which were put together under former US President Bill Clinton's administration at the end of 2000.

Western officials say that statements by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Western officials regarding recognition of the Palestinian state aim to grease the political path and exert pressure on Netanyahu. There is also talk of a proposal to hold an international peace conference in the region under European auspices.

Third stage: Regional security arrangements

Those working on the aforementioned ideas hope to move to the third stage, which includes discussions on regional security and structural arrangements that would reset the region to pre-October 7.

After taking steps to recognise a Palestinian state, the US and Saudi Arabia could resume negotiations on a comprehensive defence agreement.

After taking steps to recognise a Palestinian state, the US and Saudi Arabia could resume negotiations on a comprehensive defence agreement.

Obstacles

According to Western officials, three obstacles currently stand in the way to end Israel's military campaign in Gaza.

The first roadblock is Benjamin Netanyahu himself. The Israeli premier wants to stay in power to avoid prosecution and does not want to take steps that lead to the collapse of his right-wing government.

The second obstacle is Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. He does not want to be sidelined or exiled. The third obstacle is Iran, which does not want a final settlement that weakens its role and influence in the region.

On its part, the US is hoping that a permanent ceasefire could change the mood of the Israeli public, which would see National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich exit the current government and Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid form a new one.

US officials are discussing the possibility that some Hamas leaders – such as Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar and the military leader of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif – would be allowed to exit Gaza and move to an Arab state.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently in the region and will no doubt be discussing the Paris Quartet proposals with regional stakeholders.

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