Shifting world order on vivid display at Davos

On the Davos Promenade — the centre of social activities — the most prominent pavilions belong to Gulf countries and India. Meanwhile, China's sizeable delegation unnerves the US.

AFP

Chinese Premier Li Qiang (L), followed by World Economic Forum (WEF) founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab, arrive on stage during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on January 16, 2024.

Shifting world order on vivid display at Davos

Shirley Ze Yu

last update on 18 Jan 2024

This year's World Economic Forum theme is “Rebuilding Trust”. Unlike past gatherings aimed at pushing the human frontier or engendering a new global social paradigm, this year brings basic human instincts to the fore of the global platform – human trust or, rather, the lack of it.

With its “back to basics” theme, Davos sets relatively unambitious aims. Despite the bottomless champagne, the jet set, and the meet-and-greet among the sharp-minded and the hyper-connected, pessimism is spreading among the world’s top 1%, who are both responsible for and blamed for the state of the world, under which the remaining 99% have not much choice but to live in.

For the global elites, there is a lot to worry about: the two ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza with no strategy on when and how they will end, escalating tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and increasing mutual sanctions between China and the US.

They also are looking at a possible Trump landslide win in the Republican primary in Iowa, a possible US recession or inflation re-spike, global supply chain disruptions, and AI’s potential to destroy the collective human race.

Growing disconnect

The argument that the World Economic Forum reflects a growing disconnect with everyday people is gaining credibility. However, Davos is one of the best places to witness the shifts and recalibrations of global powers and economic forces.

A year ago, ChatGPT was a novelty. AI was not on the Davos agenda. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was little known in the Swiss village. This year, AI and the sci-fi-inspired ideas of whether AI will destroy humanity are the talk of the town. This sharp turnaround in focus reflects the inability of the forum to anticipate and respond to global change.

For the global elites, two ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza with no end in sight and escalating tensions between China and the US, give much reason to worry.

Power shift on display

Davos also puts the world's geopolitical power shift on vivid display. On the Davos Promenade — the centre of social activities — the most prominent pavilions belong to Gulf countries and India.

At Davos 2023, India, the host of G20, dazzled the crowd with its celebrity chefs and wooed global investors with its tech and manufacturing allure. The Indian soft and tech power manifests its recent global rise. The country is expected to surpass Japan as the world's third-largest economy in a short four years.

Reuters — Deemah Al Yahya, Saudi Arabia Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO) Secretary-General, attends the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 17, 2024.

On their part, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE carry a message of modernity and peace showcased through traditional Arabic cuisine offerings, music, and stunning digital display walls. The aroma of Arabic coffee fills the promenade.

Rather than boasting their position as the home of global energy, Gulf countries are highlighting their progress in digitisation, transitioning to renewable energy, and delivering a knowledge-based economy.

Indeed, the Gulf leaders attending Davos are some of the most eloquent, progressive, and ambitious leaders who champion a vision of the Gulf as the "new Europe." They are marketing their unique geostrategic location between continents as a facilitator of trade, economy and peace between the East and West.

Palpable animousity

Meanwhile, US and Chinese animosity is palpable among the Davos elites. After three years of COVID-19 lockdowns, China returns to Davos with a sizeable delegation led by Premier Li Qiang.

His remarks at the forum hinted at the US's actions that disrupt the global supply chain, fracture globalisation, and create small cliques that disadvantage the large developing world.

On their part, US diplomats have been so unnerved about the size and intent of a Chinese delegation in Switzerland that they tried to set up a meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and a Swiss official, which is being interpreted as an American effort to ensure the famously neutral country doesn't get wooed by Beijing.

Despite China's physical return to the World Economic Forum, its soft power has not. Shortly after Li's speech at Davos, announcing China's impressive 5.2% GDP growth rate in 2023, the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock indexes slid. China itself faces a crisis of "rebuilding trust."

AFP — Chinese Premier Li Qiang addresses the assembly during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on January 16, 2024.

Convener of peace and prosperity

Despite the threat of war on the Red Sea in an increasingly fractured global order, the Gulf region is well-positioned as a convener of peace and prosperity. Its geographic location straddling Asia, Europe, and Africa adds to its strategic importance.

While Gulf countries enjoy longstanding relationships with the US and Europe, they are increasingly looking towards the East in trade, technology, and capital market integrations. Chinese tech companies invest in the Gulf's strategic digital, telecom, and cloud infrastructures.

On its part, China is helping to deliver the promise of a renewable energy transition, backed by its globally dominant renewable supply chains.

The Gulf sovereign wealth funds look to recalibrate their investments in China through direct investments and via the capital markets. The Gulf is also central to the US-initiated India-Middle East-Europe corridor, a revitalisation of traditional European trading routes with Asia.

Saudi Arabia has a unique geographical location, as it connects three continents (Asia, Africa, and Europe), making it a global logistics centre capable of contributing positively to the growth of the global economy.

The Gulf region's economic resilience is only shadowed by its ambitious vision to transform the economies through digitisation, renewable energy transition, and human capital from within. As one speaker pronounced, no country presents national soft power better than the Gulf.

Davos 2024 showcases a future promised by the Middle East that brings together the East and the West amid growing pessimism in an otherwise pessimistic global geopolitical reality. The region presents a future many "Davos or ex-Davos men" would adore – peace, modernity, and global collaboration.

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