Can the BJP’s popularity withstand rising poverty in India?

Dominant figure

Modi became prime minister in 2014 and secured another term in May 2019. In this time span, he has dominated the political scene, with India's fractured opposition unable to compete with the BJP's popularity.

The party's main campaign promises of Hindu resurgence and economic development have won it two terms.

The BJP's grand political and economic schemes over the decade have focused on keeping its core Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) constituency happy through moves like the abrogation of the special status of the Muslim-majority region of Jammu and Kashmir and the construction of a huge temple on the site of the demolished 16th century Babri mosque in Uttar Pradesh.

It has thwarted several attempts by the opposition to undermine its hold on institutional power.

The food aid scheme, under which 5 kg of grain per month is given free to the most vulnerable population segments, was launched in 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been extended in short phases.

According to official figures, the financial cost for the government in its seven phases until December 2022 was more than 3.9tn rupees (about $47bn). The five-year extension will surely encourage more Indians to vote for Modi with the expectation that a win for the BJP would mean more such welfare measures.

At the very least, the programme helps contain social discontent at a time when the Indian economy is suffering from high unemployment rates. But it also exposes the high levels of hunger and malnutrition in the country, which presents itself as a huge consumer market to global investors.

Rising unemployment

Modi's government has boosted spending to build highways, airports, railways, ports, trade zones and other infrastructure facilities. This helps boost India's economic growth and enjoys wide support among the pro-BJP business community.

However, large infrastructure spending and economic liberalisation schemes have failed to generate enough jobs. The Indian stock market is booming, but portfolio investment is insufficient to deliver the millions of jobs India needs.

A Bloomberg report in November shows that current stock prices are also high.

"In India, corporate insiders are unloading their stock at a breakneck clip, selling $12bn in the first ten months of the year. Per investing 101 rules, this is a tell-tale sign that the market is overvalued," it said.

Irrespective of what happens in the stock market, the actual economy must provide jobs to India's burgeoning young population. Many desire a lot more in terms of consumerism and modern lifestyles. This class obviously has greater material demands than the poor, who are satisfied with a little food aid.

Having a university education, well-paid jobs, housing, healthcare, private cars, and social security are very important to this population segment. This population class would rather migrate to Western countries or find jobs in the Gulf region's booming economies than settle for less at home.

BJP Hindutva

Many upper-caste Hindus take pride in the BJP's Hindutva ideology. They form a significant vote base and are highly vocal and dominant in the corporate sector, media and government. Keeping them content is crucial for the BJP.

Although youth are dissatisfied due to a lack of opportunities, the Ram temple project in Ayodhya town will likely boost support for the BJP in the next general election.

Construction work on the temple on the site where the Babri mosque once stood has progressed rapidly since India's Supreme Court gave place to the Hindu side in 2019. Hindu zealots brought down the mosque on 6 December 1992 when the Congress party was in power.

Though Muslims are unhappy about the injustice of not getting the site back, they have begrudgingly accepted the verdict.

Modi will participate in the grand temple ceremony at Ayodhya in January this year. It is expected to be a highly publicised event before the parliamentary elections in May 2024. The Indian prime minister will carry the idol of the deity Ram in a spectacle that is expected to reinforce his Hindu credentials among the Indian masses as well as in the Hindu diaspora communities.

Thousands of priests, professionals, tycoons, and politicians are expected to gather in Ayodhya. According to reports, some foreign leaders will also be invited to the main event scheduled for 22 January.

Uttar Pradesh has 80 of 543 parliamentary seats, making it a big prize for any party that hopes to govern India. Muslims make up about 20% of its 240 million population.

In the 1984 general election, the BJP won only two seats nationwide. However, communal polarisation and violence over the temple issue have helped the BJP's political rise since then.

With the Babri mosque gone, the BJP and its affiliates have two more historic mosque cases — the Gyanvapi mosque in Varanasi and the Shahi Idgah mosque in Mathura— they can exploit if needed.

A host of other Islamophobic issues are also kept on the boil for political gain. The main opposition Congress party, under whose rule the Hindutva movement grew rapidly, has no comparable issue to compete with the BJP in the next elections.

Already, the second rung of hardcore BJP leaders is delivering regular blows to the Congress on this issue, taking credit for achieving the temple goal and restoring "Hindu pride".

They do not even acknowledge that without the Congress party's "soft Hindutva" and its diplomatic skills in managing the international uproar after the Babri mosque demolition, hardcore Hindutva would have been impossible.

Religious polarisation in India will undoubtedly increase in the run-up to the temple ceremony and the 2024 elections. The erasure of history, of those parts of the past that pose a threat to Hindutva myths and fantasies, is central to advancing the BJP's promises of a "glorious future" rooted in the bygone "golden age".

The BJP is working to prolong its rule beyond the five-year term it expects to win.

Its politics is fought on a war footing, with the RSS and its subsidiaries constantly working to promote the idea of Hindu supremacy.

Modi also rails against India's "slavery and colonial mindset" to boost nationalistic fervour.

While there is enthusiasm for such nationalism among the upper castes, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), or the National Association of Volunteers, the BJP's ideological parent, has also created groups to recruit lower castes. Among its affiliates and subsidiaries, the Bajrang Dal militant youth group draws many members from the lower classes.

The Bajrang Dal has been accused of involvement in several mob lynchings of Muslims and other attacks by vigilantes. French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot, in his book Modi's India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy, calls its members plebeian.

Grand plans

India's status as a low-income country does not mean it cannot punch above its weight regarding geopolitics. Several economic and political goals are being discussed in the 25 years known as "Amrit Kaal", leading up to 2047, the centenary year of India's Independence from Britain.

In a speech on Independence Day on 15 August last year, Modi declared: "We must turn India into a developed country in the next 25 years."

There is an acute realisation that a "new India" is impossible without achieving ambitious economic targets. The government aims for India to overtake Japan and Germany in GDP to become the world's third-largest economy by 2027.  This target has been repeated in official statements and think-tank discussions. It also aims to secure India a permanent seat on the UN Security Council to boost its diplomatic global stature.

While the food scheme helps deter poor Indians from wider revolt, there is always a danger that the opposition can exploit the poverty factor. Although the BJP has been able to manage the political opposition, it was forced into a humiliating climbdown in 2021 when an unprecedented protest by farmers, especially in Punjab, forced the government to withdraw three new controversial farm laws.

The BJP, therefore, has waged a multi-pronged battle to control the media narrative and suppress other political parties and dissenting voices. It also ensures the lower and middle classes are distracted by cricket and other entertainment.

Foreign policy ambitions

Good foreign relations are crucial for the BJP to push through its long-term domestic agenda. However, achieving foreign policy success depends on its relations with other countries, which can be unexpectedly compromised. For example, India's relations with Canada this year plunged into a crisis after Ottawa accused Indian government agents of murdering a Sikh separatist leader in the country.

In June 2020, bloody clashes erupted between Indian and Chinese soldiers in the Ladakh region, killing 20 Indian and four Chinese troops. The dramatic clash led to heightened tensions and heavy military buildup in the border area.

Then came the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 created various economic and foreign policy uncertainties for Indian policymakers. Russia has been a traditional ally of India, so the country's foreign policy establishment finds it difficult to manage Western demands in the West's fight against Russia.

In recent years, the West has gained more leverage over India, which increasingly relies on the US-led West for technology, finance, arms and export markets.

The most recent foreign policy challenge for India is Israel's war on Gaza and the broader Israel-Palestine conflict. India, for decades, was seen as a supporter of the Palestinian cause, but now it has deep military, security and business links with Israel.

Read more: India trapped in Israel's embrace

The Indian elite is unabashedly pro-Israel. Despite worldwide condemnation of Israel's killing of thousands of Palestinian children and women, the Indian media spouts Israeli talking points. While most countries in the global south have not shied away from calling Israel out on its violations of international law through its genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, India has not even issued mild criticism against Israel's actions.

India's pro-Israel stance has the potential to damage its image among Arab and Muslim populations and hurt its relations with their governments. It can also hurt India domestically by alienating its sizable Muslim population.