6 ways India can safeguard its rise as a global power

Modi's political ownership of the country's national identity is not yet assured. He has a battle ahead of him. The opposition he faces in upcoming elections has formed a coalition with the word India in its title, as the country's politicians seek to shed the colonial legacy over the country's name.

And that legacy also includes a rich Islamic heritage, that unfolded over a millennium and significantly shaped India's contemporary identity, not least through the Mughal Empire.

There are further complications.

At the same time as reclaiming its history, India is opening to the outside world and seeking a prominent global role. It sees the current state of flux over the geopolitical landscape as an opportunity to assert itself and establish a meaningful presence.

There have been clear achievements alongside the advances in foreign policy. Scientific and technological progress has reached the moon, with an Indian lander reaching the lunar south pole, a feat that eluded countries with longer experience of outer space.

But India's leaders and their country face critical challenges. These issues require close attention if India is to realise its aspirations.

Here, we outline the six main goals that Modi and his rivals must work toward to reach their goals.

1. Knowledge-based economy

India has firmly secured its position as the world's fifth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $3.74tn, surpassing the United Kingdom and France.

But along with a significant share of the global market comes a fresh set of challenges. India will need to identify the economic niches where it can keep excelling and ensure it has the workforce it needs to make more progress.

A staggering 59% of the Indian labour force is still in the agricultural sector, even as its contribution to GDP recedes.

And there are contradictions within India's skills base and reputation in some technology-led sectors. The country has a well-deserved reputation for computer programming and communication, mainly due to its strategic focus on technology and engineering in education.

But India is noticeably absent from the list of nations capable of manufacturing advanced electronic chips, which remains dominated by China, the US and Taiwan.

Traditional industries add limited value and make up much of India's list of exports. Clothing, textiles, and machinery abound, often at lower prices. This does not compare to the exports from economic powerhouses like China and Europe, or those backed by valuable patents, a characteristic commonly found in many US products.

The journey towards fully establishing a knowledge-based economy is a formidable task. It will need much innovation and total commitment.

2. Peaceful political transition

There is concern about changes Modi and the BJP want to make over India's governance structure, moves that some say will steer the country toward becoming more like neighbouring Pakistan.

Critics argue that proposals may erode the central government's ability to effectively manage the affairs of a vast federal state, which has a complex social and political fabric.

There are fears that the changes could strengthen forces that do not back the peaceful transition of power. This shows how moves to remove colonial-era legacies and symbols, including British and Islamic names, can be dangerous.

While such change stirs national pride and reclaims India's illustrious history, it simultaneously exacerbates internal tensions between Hindus and Muslims.

And governments that tilt toward authoritarianism thrive when they portray a minority as an intruder. While officials deny any discrimination against Indian citizens, there are many minority groups in the country, not least Muslims.

Even if the cases of religious prejudice are discounted, India's historical roots in a caste system leave it prone to nationalism. The West often overlooks this as it seeks closer ties with the fast-growing nation.

3. A robust middle class

The rapid rise of India as an economic power comes with stark inequality: A report from Oxfam found that in 2021, a staggering 40.5% of the nation's wealth was concentrated in just 1% of the population.

That comes as a significant proportion of India's people struggle to meet their basic needs, while most of the population pays 64% of the national tax.

It stokes serious concern about how economic growth disproportionately favours the wealthy while leaving the poor underserved in a country where much development is required.

Throughout global history, income disparities have not prevented the rise of economic giants. But they can hinder India's ascent, coming at a different time and with other political characteristics.

India's economic revolution comes amid a democratic system that encourages broad participation in the political process. That means the ruling elite can be removed or renewed if people perceive it is not acting in the interest of the majority.

The persistence of such a vast difference between the rich and the poor can mean an economy is failing to create one of the most essential ingredients for sustained progress: a robust middle class.

Should a lack of an emerging middle-class curb development, there could be problems for sustained growth and social harmony.

That's because the middle class is a major source of economic advancement, creating domestic demand and opening up the national skills base, as its members stay in education for longer, helping the country compete in the global labour market.

4. Upholding democracy

India is the fastest-rising global economic power since China's historic ascent began in the 1980s.

Comparisons between the two are inevitable but can also be misleading. China is a one-party state with a centralised government. India is a democracy run along more federal lines. This crucial difference has led to contrasting approaches to economic development and political representation.

China's system has allowed the government to implement economic reforms more quickly and effectively. But it has arrived alongside a lack of individual freedom and human rights.

India's system has made it more difficult to implement national policies, but it has also allowed for more participation from the local-level state and the people.

China's one-child policy has led to a decline in population, adding strain to its economy and welfare system. India does not have the same population problem, but it is facing its own challenges, not least inequality, lingering poverty, and corruption.

Political representation and the distinct difference between the two countries is significant.

The total dominance of China's Communist Party means the country followed a singular vision for prosperity and advancement. It achieved remarkable success but was sheltered from the periodic assessments made by democratic societies.

In India, there is not a one-party system. India's leaders can be exposed to rejection at the ballot box, especially if they are excessively glorified as saviours or the architects of a bright future at a time when people feel left behind by change.

5. Containing tensions with neighbours

India is entangled in two intricate and longstanding strategic disputes with its neighbours, Pakistan and China.

These conflicts are rooted in historical, religious, economic, and border-related matters, creating an intricate web of issues. They are persistent sources of tension and could hold back development.

Pakistan and China both have nuclear weapons. And both have unresolved border disputes with India. War has been recent, breaking out in 1962 for India and China, and sporadic confrontations continue between them in the Himalayan highlands.

India and Pakistan have also been engaged in multiple wars and skirmishes since their independence in 1947.

Both flashpoints remain dangerous, even as efforts at containment and reconciliation continue.  These enduring tensions raise questions about India as an investment case for foreign capital.

6. A champion for developing countries

India is actively reshaping its international image while upholding its role as an advocate for the global south in the face of Western dominance.

That can be seen from India's determination to get the African Union a full seat at the G20 and the European Union's representation at the top table of global economic powers.

India has frequently championed the interests and perspectives of the global south in various global negotiations, over climate change, debt burdens and restitution for colonial exploitation.

India has become a powerful and vocal voice for this often overlooked and under-appreciated part of the world. But as it ascends to become a major international power, there are questions about how long its interests will remain aligned with the global south.

The six factors listed here show India's most critical challenges as it continues to advance after its moment in the global spotlight hosting the G20 summit.

The fast-growing country's announcement of trade corridors linking it to Europe was a significant move in countering China's investment programme known as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Meanwhile, amid all the change, one more familiar question remains:  Who holds the greatest potential for success and will shape the trajectory of the 21st century in the years to come?