"The Tokyo Principles" and "The Day After" in Gaza

This discord was repeated in the Manama dialogue, where a diplomatic clash unfolded on the dialogue platforms between Brett McGurk, the US President's envoy to the Middle East, and Arab officials regarding these same points, priorities, and areas of concern.

McGurk presented what he termed the "Five Tokyo Principles," not in reference to the conditions imposed on Japan after its defeat with nuclear weapons in World War II but rather as the "Blinken's No's" post the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in the Japanese capital.

These principles encompass: "No to the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, no to the reoccupation of Gaza, no to the reduction of the area/land of Gaza; it is Palestinian land and will remain Palestinian, no threat to Israel's security from Gaza, no to the blockade of Gaza; civilians must be isolated from 'Hamas' as they are not responsible for its crimes."

Subsequently, he articulated five guidelines for future actions: the voice and aspirations of the Palestinian people must be at the core of governance in Gaza. The West Bank and Gaza ought to revert to the authority of the Palestinian Authority. Ensuring the security of Israel with no threat emanating from the West Bank and Gaza. Furnishing support and resources for the post-crisis and transitional period to establish the groundwork for a two-state solution. Establishing a mechanism for reconstruction and addressing the long-term needs of Gaza.

Arab officials have firmly declined engagement in discussions about future reconstruction plans and the deployment of Arab observers and forces in Gaza, as no one knows how and when this war will end. Their paramount concern revolves around putting an end to the bloodshed and preventing displacement. To achieve this, they have advocated for an immediate cessation of military operations and bombardment, emphasizing the importance of averting displacement that poses a threat to both Palestinians and the national security of Egypt and Jordan.

Additionally, they underscore the urgency of providing humanitarian aid. They have called for the initiation of a serious political process leading to a two-state solution and offering an alternative to "Hamas" for the Palestinian people, since "Hamas" is an idea born out of occupation, as stated by Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi.

Significantly, implicit criticism was voiced by Joseph Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. He criticized some of "McGurk's principles," specifically the stance on "rejecting forced displacement," noting that it is inevitable due to "bombing and famine." Regarding the rejection of the separation of Gaza, Borrell perceives the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem as an integral unit that should not be divided.

Borrell concurred that "Hamas" should not govern the "future Gaza." However, he did not specifically advocate for the "reform" of the Palestinian Authority to assume responsibility for the Strip. Instead, he believed that it was prepared to do so. Additionally, he called for Arab involvement in the reconstruction of Gaza and the rebuilding of Palestinian state institutions, alongside the initiation of serious negotiations to achieve these objectives.

The utmost concern is that discussions about peace and the two-state solution must not be a pretext for altering facts on the ground and imposing new realities, as witnessed over the past three decades. An Arab official underscored the importance of establishing a timeline and practical steps to implement the two-state solution and the establishment of the Palestinian state, to ensure that the region progresses to a stage where violence does not resurface periodically.

In recent years, the United States has encouraged its global allies to consider the post-victory scenarios in various wars, interventions, and crises. They have supported institutions specialized in "The Day After" in countries such as Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and other regions.

The initial step in seriously contemplating "The Day After" requires the Biden administration to persuade its Arab and European allies to coordinate their actions regarding the current events to collectively navigate the region towards a position where new "Day After" plans can succeed, particularly in light of past setbacks and failures in Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan.