Netanyahu's political demise is near

Netanyahu has transformed Israel.

While most observers at home and abroad will remember him for the controversial reforms that became known as the "judicial coup" at the beginning of 2023 – which have been postponed until after the war in Gaza –  he has brought Israel into what amounts to a "Third Republic".

It is a successor to the Ben-Gurion Republic, established in 1948, and the Begin Republic from 1977.

Turning his back on a two-state solution

Since 2009, Netanyahu has wholly abandoned the idea of an independent Palestinian state. He has forced the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank to become an instrument of Israeli security. Now, he aspires to repeat that arrangement in Gaza.

Netanyahu has also revolutionised Israel's international standing through close diplomatic alliances with a range of major powers – including India, China, Russia, the entire European Union, and Canada – alongside his country's established and absolute support from the United States.

This means most of these nations support Israel's current war in Gaza and its objective to "eliminate Hamas". At the same time, they remain silent about the blatant crimes being committed against Gazans.

Beyond politics, Netanyahu's shake-up permeated various aspects of Israeli life, including education, journalism, public religion, the status of the courts and universities, the economy, and popular political culture. He has left a legacy for whatever happens next, and his presence will be felt for many years to come.

War wipes out established strategy

Netanyahu's war on Gaza has further divided Israeli society and politics, which could backfire on him personally as well as his political career.

The threat to him comes after the sudden collapse of one of his main political strategies, which had stood for years: the "mutual accommodation" between Israel and Hamas.

That ended in the shock of the sudden violence of 7 October. The attacks carried out by the Al-Qassam and Al-Quds Brigades were a military success for Hamas. 

And Israel's devastating military response – launched by Netanyahu against Gaza and its people, who he considers to be incubators of Hamas and Islamic Jihad – unleashed extensive air strikes and a subsequent ground campaign.

After the military campaign, Israel will likely set up an official investigation and inquiry into the events of 7 October and what led to them. Netanyahu's role in the intelligence failure and the uncertain military response during the Hamas attacks – which both failed to protect Israeli civilians – will be a big part of that.

National unity and imminent downfall

Netanyahu is aware of this and has begun practical preparations for his defence. This has eroded his standing, and it is affecting his reactions in a political sense. The prime minister is, in effect, near the end of his political career in Israel, teetering on the edge of his own downfall.

As the shockwaves of the 7 October attacks reverberated, a visibly shaken Netanyahu formed a government of national unity, bringing in opposition leader Benny Gantz and his party into the government, along with the Yisrael Beiteinu, or the "Israel Our Home" party, led by Avigdor Lieberman.

The aim was to establish broad, national political support for Israel's response, and whatever lay ahead in the uncertainty of war. The ongoing campaign against Gaza has been brutal. It has involved what look like war crimes in the biggest offensive since the first Gaza war of 2008.

Alongside the widespread ariel bombardment and the advance of troops on the ground, there has been a systematic displacement of Gaza's residents and a huge death toll, amounting to a massive humanitarian cost.  

All of this comes as Hamas continues to hold Israeli hostages, while street-by-street urban combat in the Strip adds to the uncertainty of the outcome, which will come at a huge economic cost. And for Netanyahu to meet his objective and keep his promise to allies in the West, war must end in nothing less than the destruction of Hamas.

Even if it does, the current prime minister will face significant questions regarding the war, its objectives, its course, and his responsibility for what has transpired.

Lack of confidence

Since the first day of the current confrontation, many Israeli commentators have expressed a lack of confidence in Netanyahu's ability to run the war and complete the mission. They have also pointed out that he has sought to protect himself.

Writing in the leading Israeli economic newspaper TheMarker, just three days after the Hamas attacks, Merav Arlosoroff wrote:

"The prime minister is on his way to forming a government investigative committee. He needs the best people by his side to minimise the damage and save his professional life. However, he still prefers loyalty over competence, which is a catastrophe for himself and us."

A few days later, the commentator Rogel Alpher wrote in the newspaper Haaretz: "We were all naive. The crisis in the Israeli army is the same as the crisis in Netanyahu's competence."

"His incompetence is not only reflected in his decisions that undermine national security but also in his refusal to speak directly to the public in interviews with Israeli media during times of national crisis to provide explanations."

"His refusal to do so is foolish. The interviews he conducted abroad highlight his incompetence, and relying on his competence proves to be a grave mistake."

Since those words were written in mid-October, the criticism of Netanyahu and the pressure on him has escalated. He has been on the defensive at home politically throughout the war, trying to distance himself from the failures that led to 7 October almost immediately after the attacks.

On midnight on the very next day, he found the time to posted on social media:

"Contrary to false claims: Prime Minister Netanyahu was not warned under any circumstances or at any stage of the war intentions by Hamas. On the contrary, all security officials, including the head of the Security Cabinet and the head of the Shin Bet [the General Security Service], estimated that Hamas had backtracked and resorted to a settlement.

"This is the assessment that has been repeatedly presented to the prime minister and the Cabinet by all security forces and intelligence agencies, even before the outbreak of the war."

Netanyahu's attempts to evade responsibility for his role in Israel's failure have been counterproductive. They have led to a wave of public anger in the media and among his government partners.

There was a stark response from rival politician Benny Gantz, even as he backed the national unity government. In a social media post made later that day, he wrote: "The Prime Minister should retract his statement. This morning, I specifically want to support and strengthen all the security forces, including the Chief of Staff, the head of the IDF, and the head of the Shin Bet."

"When we are at war, leadership must show responsibility, make the right decisions, and support the forces in a way that enables them to achieve what we ask of them. Any other action or statement harms the people's resilience and strength."

Gantz's words came amid a deluge of criticism of Netanyahu, his statement on security services, and the line he took at press conferences. It meant the prime minister had to apologise and reaffirm his support for their leaders. Back on social media, he posted:

"I made a mistake; what I said after the press conference should not have been said, and I apologise for it. I give full support to all the heads of the security branches. I am reinforcing the Chief of Staff and the leaders and soldiers of the IDF who are on the front lines fighting for Israel. Together, we will prevail."

Unfit for office

This behaviour from Netanyahu during a national crisis made him look unfit for high office in general and a role running the war in particular, according to a range of Israeli observers.

Haaretz expressed this sentiment in its leader column in late October: "The position published by the Prime Minister on social media at one o'clock on Saturday night, in which he accused the heads of the security agencies of failure on 7 October, amid the war, requires his immediate removal from the helm of power."

"After this post, despite deleting it the next morning and apologising verbally and publicly, every citizen in Israel, the President, Knesset members, government members, and the heads of the security establishment should understand once and for all: Netanyahu's continuation as Prime Minister at this critical hour is somewhat of a gamble with Israel's future."

Opinion polls showed a collapse in confidence in Netanyahu's leadership and support for his Likud party, so much so that it was predicted the number of seats it would win in an election would drop to around 20 from the 31 secured at the last election.

Netahyahu has been thrown out of power only to win it back before. But this time around, the context is transformed: Israel was struck by an unprecedented military and intelligence failure.

And the consequences of it are of truly historic proportions, not least in the humanitarian cost, and secondary economic and social effects. Israel is now in an open-ended war with an objective it is by no means certain to achieve and which will leave it with a new set of problems even if Hamas is totally eliminated.

Israeli hostages may only end up being released in a prisoner swap with Hamas, which will amount to another clear failure for Netanyahu.

These circumstances look so damning for the prime minister and are so different from any which have gone before that it looks like his time in power is up. He will remain a significant figure with an important legacy. But it will be years before it is clear what that will look like.