Hamas deals Israel yet another October surprise

The timing of Hamas's military operation coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the October War of 1973 is significant. Jabareen noted a direct historical parallel between the reactions of Israel today and the events of 6 October 1973, when Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel.

Read more: October War: The surprise Arab victory that changed the region

He quoted an Israeli reserve officer, who was commander of the Israeli Navy several years ago, as having said that the war had "caught Israel completely off guard, resulting in a significant security and intelligence failure."

Jabareen explained that Israel perceives events in the West Bank as mostly contained within that region. In contrast, actions in the Gaza Strip have the potential to rapidly impact and spread deep into Israeli territory, which is a source of concern for Israeli authorities.

Captured prisoners give Palestinians bargaining power

He emphasised that one of Israel's key concerns is the "harm to its soldiers and the dissemination of images and videos depicting Israeli soldiers being captured and killed. This is the toughest picture," which Israel desperately wants to avoid.

In recent developments, numerous photos and video clips have circulated widely on social media and in the media, showing Israeli soldiers in Palestinian custody inside settlements near the Gaza border.

Some of these soldiers were captured and taken into Gaza cities during street battles waged by Hamas fighters in the Israeli settlements. There were even instances of Israeli military jeeps roaming the streets of Gaza after they were seized by Palestinians and brought into the Gaza cities.

Israel priority on settlements before Gaza

Jabareen told Al Majalla his belief that "Israel is now poised to react, though this reaction may have been somewhat delayed due to the shock experienced by Israel's leaders" in response to the unfolding events.

The expert on Israeli affairs explained that Israel's priority is "to end the ground clashes" between Hamas fighters and occupation soldiers inside Israeli settlements. Israel is waiting to control that situation before deciding its course of action in the Gaza Strip.

"I believe Israel is waiting to end and control that situation, before responding to the Gaza Strip."

He added that Israel is focused on the soldiers and settlers captured by Hamas today and taken to the Gaza Strip. 

"Hamas's biggest asset now is the 35 or more prisoners they have captured. An air strike on the Gaza Strip could kill these prisoners, especially since the occupation does not have any intelligence information about them," he said.

Jabareen expressed scepticism over the capabilities and experience of the occupation soldiers to fight a ground war, which could explain why Israel has recruited reserve soldiers who are approximately 40 years old and have previous experience fighting the Lebanon War in 2006.

These are the soldiers that Israel will rely on in any ground war.

Israeli sources said Hamas entered 14 Israeli settlements on the Gaza border, resulting in dozens of deaths and more than 900 wounded, including 70 critical injuries. Dozens of soldiers and settlers are also missing.

Palestinian medical sources announced that nearly 200 Palestinians were killed, and Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip injured more than 1,600 others.

Al-Dajani believes Hamas has its own assessments and plans for confrontation and that the international community will likely step in to mediate.

"Operations, like today's, affect regional and international stability, and, therefore, the international community wants to stop things from escalating," he said.

"However, Netanyahu will not accept mediation until after responding, which will, in my estimation, open additional fronts across the battle line. This could backfire on Netanyahu and jeopardise his political future."

Regarding the capturing of Israeli soldiers and settlers, Al-Dajani stressed that more than 5,000 Palestinian prisoners in the occupation prisons are Hamas's top priority.

Hamas "has the right to demand their release and to empty the prisons."

During the 2014 Israeli aggression, the Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza captured Israeli soldiers, and several secret negotiations took place with various international mediators during the past years between Hamas and Israel.

However, the talks were unsuccessful in securing the release of prisoners, whereas, the prisoner deal in 2011 managed to secure the release of 1,100 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for releasing Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Netanyahu government collapse?

Jabareen predicts that prisoner exchange talks will be crucial and any perceived failures by Netanyahu's right-wing government could lead to its collapse. 

Jabareen gave the example of how the Lebanon War in 2006 forced then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to resign "for reasons far less than what we are seeing today."

But any negotiations will necessarily be preceded by a military assault, as Israel will want to ensure it is in a dominant position during talks.

In a television interview, the Deputy Chairman of Hamas, Saleh Al-Arouri, announced the capture of senior officers from the occupation army and said: "There are many (Palestinian) martyrs and many Zionist casualties and prisoners. The battle is still at its beginning, and the freedom of our prisoners is at the doorstep."