Humanitarian concerns mount as tide turns in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

After the victory, Azerbaijan called on Armenians in Karabakh to remain, if they so wished, as equal citizens of Azerbaijan.

Azeri authorities assured them that no one would be persecuted for being Armenian. However, those who committed war crimes against civilians in the past would be held accountable.

Ruben Vardanyan, the former head of Nagorno-Karabakh's separatist government, has been arrested for these reasons and is expected to appear in a courtroom soon.

Complicated matters

In deep-rooted international problems with historical background, nationalistic fervour, geopolitical competition and other interrelated issues, difficulties are immense.

Azerbaijan, having won the war, must seek to achieve peace now. Azerbaijanis expect President Aliyev to seal the military victory with an unambiguous diplomatic agreement.

On the Armenian side, the hardline nationalists, such as Dashnags, are already confronting Pashinyan, who is considered a patriot but a realist.

The Armenian Prime Minister understands the deep level of trouble his country is in and is therefore trying to come up with solutions that will require making difficult decisions.

Could Pashinyan survive these multiple challenges? In a society where coups, violent raids and political assassinations are not uncommon, there is a serious risk of anything happening at any time.

Normalising relations

Armenia is an economically devastated country; it is landlocked and lacks natural resources and industry. Foreign investors have kept their distance.

Its border crossings with neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan, are closed.

Armenia is also excluded from international trade and energy route projects in the Caucasus. Its population is shrinking as citizens leave, mainly to the west, searching for a better life.

To survive, Armenia needs to normalise relations with its neighbours. Opening borders would allow the complete free passage of people and goods.

Russian connection

Russia has historically had an undisputedly important place in the region. Its policies have shaped the destiny of Armenians over the course of centuries.

Prime Minister Pashinyan has been flirting with the West and has been at odds with Russia.

However, Russia has supporters within Armenia, as well as the 102nd Military Base in Gyumri, 120 kilometres from Yerevan, and a couple of thousand peacekeepers in Karabakh.

There is also the friendship treaty, which was signed in 1997 between Armenia and Russia, which includes clauses on mutual assistance in the event of a military threat to either party. It allows Russian border guards to patrol Armenia's frontiers with Turkey and Iran.

Many argue that what happened in Karabakh could not have happened without Russia's seal of approval. This may be an overestimation of Russia's abilities but could still hold some truth.

Russians are unlikely to give up on their foothold in Karabakh or take a step back from influencing the flow of events there. The war in Ukraine may have distracted Russia, but it has not crippled it.

In any case, under the circumstances, it is highly unlikely that even the biggest sceptics of Russia in Armenia would wish to see Russia gone, at least for the time being.

Geopolitical links

There have been important developments in Turkey-Armenia relations.

Even though there is no official link, political developments on this front cannot be ignored or considered separate from the special strategic relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey is careful not to upset Azerbaijan.

International actors within the West, France, the US, and the European Union, have sought a solution to the Karabakh problem for three decades but have not succeeded.

It is considered odd that, even though the United Nations and the entire international community officially accepted Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory under occupation, their efforts have failed.

However, there are reasons for that.

Besides Russia's politics of playing Armenians and Azerbaijanis against each other, France and the US have traditionally been pro-Armenia, mainly due to the politically and economically strong Armenian communities in their countries.

They also failed their so-called efforts because they did not aim to end the occupation of Karabakh – and restore international legality – but to legitimise the status quo, and make it permanent, keeping Azerbaijan quiet with various sweeteners.

Agreement pending

These countries are once again at the forefront of international efforts. Recently, the EU hosted negotiations between the two sides in Brussels.

Whether any Armenians would choose to remain in Karabakh – and the question of how to ensure the well-being of those who might – will be a major issue for discussion. However, suggestions of international observers in Karabakh are not well received by the Azeris.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan are expected to meet on October 5 in Granada, during the European Political Community Summit.

They are not expected to sign an agreement but their discussions could pave the way for one.

A permanent peace agreement between the two countries, confirming their territorial integrity within recognised borders, may be achieved, but not without some serious input from both sides.