Syrian refugees in Turkey: A 'problem' that cannot be wished away

Public frustration grows

For many Turks, the war in Syria is over and Syrians should go back home.

Meanwhile, others — who may feel the same way about the situation — are looking for more pragmatic solutions. Many businesses are benefiting from the cheap labour provided by Syrians and Afghans. These refugees often work longer hours and are paid less than Turkish workers.

Then, there are other groups who believe that Syrians have the right to live in Turkey as fellow Muslims and compatriots from the Ottoman era. These people tend to come from the more conservative and ideological segments of society.

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is close to this religiously and historically-motivated mindset, he is a politician at the end of the day who has to take public sentiment into consideration.

Voting rights of foreigners were a matter of contention during previous elections last May/June.

Many Turks — especially those who oppose the government — vocally questioned why property-buying foreigners who only spend a few weeks' holidays in Turkey and who can not even speak Turkish should have the right to vote in elections.

They object to Syrians, Egyptians, and others who have obtained Turkish citizenship — in ways presumed to be questionable by many — having a say in Turkey's future.

Unreliable figures

Just before the elections, the former Minister of Interior downplayed these concerns stating that the number of Syrians who were granted citizenship was 230,998 and only 130,914 of them were of voting age. He argued that the numbers were too small to have a significant impact on election results.

While no one can confirm whether these figures are accurate or not, in an electoral system where "whoever gets 50% plus one wins", every vote counts. Therefore, the minister's arguments did little to alleviate public concern.

It is unclear how many Syrians living in Turkey have returned to Syria. Even the most authoritative politicians and state officials contradict each other when citing figures. The number of Syrians they claim have returned ranges from 500,000 to one million. After all, it is a well-established global practice for politicians to manipulate statistics to suit their agendas.

Going off official data from the Turkish Directorate of Migration Management, deducting the present-day figure of Syrians from the peak figure of 3.7 million in 2021, the number of those who have returned stands at around 400,000.

Obstacles to refugees' return

However, the question remains: will Syrians really return en masse voluntarily?

Erdoğan claims that housing projects in northern Syria will encourage more refugees to return. On another occasion, he emphasised that voluntary, safe and dignified returns would increase if the security situation in Syria is stabilised.

A few days ago in an interview, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad addressed the issue. He claimed that nearly a half million refugees had returned to Syria in the past few years, but that returns had now stopped — not because people who returned were imprisoned but due to living conditions. He questioned how a refugee could possibly return without basics of life such as water, electricity, schooling and medical treatment.

While al-Assad's comments on the dire situation in Syria are definitely true, he left out the most important reason why Syrians do not want to return: because he is still in power.

His claim that no returnees have been jailed is also false. It is widely reported by NGOs, international organisations and Syrians themselves that a significant number of people who have returned have been detained — or even worse. Some have even been forced to join the army.

It is also unclear why al-Assad would even want Syrians who oppose him to return. Why would he want to bring more mouths to feed into areas that are already experiencing dire economic strains?

There are 13.5 million displaced Syrians — around half abroad and the rest internally displaced.

In pictures: From Idlib to Jordan, Syrians displaced by conflict face bleak futures

It is worth noting that while trying to find ways for the return of Syrians, the possibility of a new influx from Idlib and northern Syria — where over 4.5 million people live — is a nightmare for Turkish politicians.

The Turkish government needs to respond to the public outcry and show that it working on addressing their concerns. Important upcoming local elections also put pressure on the government to show that it is doing something about the "refugee problem".

To this end, the Turkish government has been recently deporting Syrians and Afghans who do not have the proper documents. Syrians involved in crime are also immediately deported.

However, these quick fixes will do little to address the overall problem because the source of the problem is Syria — not Turkey. The only way Syrians would seriously consider returning home is through a political solution and putting a process in place to facilitate economic and social recovery.

Unfortunately, a genuine and durable political solution does not look plausible at this stage because al-Assad has little appetite for one. Also, rivalries between the foreign power centres in Syria — namely Iran, the United States, Turkey and Russia, among others — are very likely to hinder any such efforts.

On its part, the international community also has little time or resources to invest in pushing for a solution in Syria as it is preoccupied with more pressing global issues such as the war in Ukraine.