Cairo is no stranger to turbulent borders, but peace in its southern neighbour protects it from a host of threats from piracy to water scarcity.
AFP
A handout picture released by the Egyptian Presidency shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) receiving the President of Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in El Alamein on Egypt.
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s recent visit to Cairo raised hopes for a potential international diplomatic route to end the civil war in Sudan.
Sudan's army chief has been locked in conflict with a rival militia since April. He arrived in Egypt in late August for talks with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi — the first time the general had left his own country since the conflict began.
His visit was widely seen as Egypt's recognition of al-Burhan as Sudan’s legitimate leader as his troops battle the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for control.
El-Sisi met the general at the airport in Alamein — a city famous for its role in World War II and which is now an international tourist destination and summer retreat for Egypt’s elite.
But the visit probably had more to do with Cairo’s fears over Sudan rather than its support for the man who remains at the head of the country’s ruling Sovereign Council.
Egypt is keen to prevent its southern neighbour from descending into more chaos and further fragmentation as the brutal war rages on.
Egypt is keen to prevent its southern neighbour from descending into more chaos and further fragmentation as the brutal war rages on.
A push for peace
Almost a month before al-Burhan's plane touched down in Alamein, Cairo hosted a meeting of the Forces of Freedom and Change — the first grouping of Sudan's rebel and civilian movements since the war erupted in April.
This picture taken on April 16, 2023, shows Sudanese army soldiers, loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, posing for a picture at the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) base in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan.
Those attending the meeting sought to establish common ground for ending the conflict in their country, rounding up internal and external support for a peace settlement.
El-Sisi had earlier united the leaders of Sudan's other neighbours behind an Egyptian initiative to end Sudan's war. It seeks a permanent ceasefire and safe humanitarian corridors for aid delivery. A framework for dialogue would include all of Sudan's political groups and major figures.
The meeting with al-Burhan came as the next step in that process, which Egypt hopes will prevent Sudan from disintegrating.
"The conflict keeps widening in scope, engulfing one Sudanese region after another," Tarek Fahmi, a political science professor at Cairo University, told Al Majalla.
"This rings alarm bells in Cairo, which talks to all parties to the conflict, having clarified before that it treats these parties on equal footing," he added.
According to a statement issued by Cairo after the meeting, el-Sisi underscored Egypt's solidarity with Sudan and voiced support for its security, stability, unity and territorial integrity.
Al-Burhan said he was in Egypt to assure Sudan's neighbours that he wanted to end the war and complete his country's transition to democracy, so the Sudanese people could choose their own leaders via free and fair elections.
But a few days later, he showed how real the fears over Sudan are, saying to a policeman in Port Sudan: "We are facing a war, and if it is not resolved quickly, Sudan will be fragmented."
The conflict keeps widening in scope, engulfing one Sudanese region after another. This rings alarm bells in Cairo, which talks to all parties to the conflict, having clarified before that it treats these parties on equal footing.
Tarek Fahmi, a political science professor at Cairo University
Security burden
The war is no longer just a power struggle between two parts of the military. It has become an all-out battle for the country, reaching most of Sudan and already displacing millions of people, both internally and over neighbouring borders.
Security planners in Cairo have already had sleepless nights over the prospect of a lawless Sudan, which shares a 1,276-kilometre frontier with Egypt.
Before Sudan descended into conflict, it had border guards on patrol, sharing the work with Egypt. Not only has that help ended, but the instability on the Sudanese side, not least via a now-rampant arms trade there means there is more work to do.
Security analysts have warned of possible infiltration and activity from terrorist groups active in southern Libya along with the Sahel and the Sahara regions.
"The situation in Sudan poses extreme dangers to neighbouring countries, especially Egypt," Khaled Okasha, the head of the local think tank, Egyptian Centre for Thought and Strategic Studies, told Al Majalla.
"Terrorist groups usually exploit instability and a long war in Sudan may turn the country into a fertile ground for the presence and the growth of these groups," he added.
Egypt also shares a 1,100-kilometre border with Libya to the west, as well as one with the Palestinian Gaza Strip, where there are active smuggling networks. Egyptian police and troops in Sinai have faced attacks from Islamist militants.
Piracy threat
Further chaos in Sudan could cause further security problems in the Red Sea and may threaten the navigation of the Suez Canal — one of the most important shipping lanes in the world, carrying almost 12% of global trade.
Sudan's Red Sea coast extends over 750 kilometres and could become a springboard for attacks and piracy operations on vessels heading for the Suez Canal or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Port Sudan is around 1,000 kilometres away from the Egyptian border.
Any disruption to the canal would hit Egypt's economy hard, knocking vital national income from the waterway as well as development in the area.
In this photo released by Suez Canal Authority, tugboats pull the ship MV Glory in the Suez Canal between the cities of Port Said and Ismailiya, Egypt Monday, Jan. 9, 2023.
There are already plans for tens of billions of dollars of foreign investment around the canal, where an international logistics, service and industrial centre will create tens of thousands of jobs.
Egypt has already taken action to reduce potential threats to the canal, anticipating potential instability. In January 2020, el-Sisi opened the Barnis naval and air base on its south-eastern coast, demonstrating Egyptian fears of possible unrest in the southern entrance to the canal.
It was intended to deter disruption to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the Houthi militia in Yemen, but it is also only a few kilometres away from Sudan.
The base was also seen as a buffer against attempts by regional rival, Turkey, to gain control of Sudan's Red Sea island of Suakin which is located only a few kilometres away from Egypt.
Sudan's Red Sea coast extends over 750 kilometres and could become a springboard for attacks and piracy operations on vessels heading for the Suez Canal or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Refugees
Sudan's war has so far displaced over 4.6 million people, according to the UN's migration agency. Those include over 3.6 million who fled to safer areas inside Sudan and over 1 million others who crossed into neighbouring countries.
Sudanese children board a vehicle crossing the Sudan-Chad border to escape fighting in Darfur on August 4.
Almost a quarter of them ended up in Egypt, adding to around 5 million Sudanese nationals already there. More refugees will deepen Egypt's economic problems and bring further security risks.
These developments come at a time of a gruelling economic crisis in Egypt, induced by Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine which has raised commodity prices and the cost of its imports, including food.
The war is also a major geostrategic loss for Egypt, in terms of sensitive international politics over freshwater supplies in the region.
Cairo had an ally in Sudan as it struggled to protect Egypt's share of the flow from the Nile – its main source of fresh water – as Ethiopia builds a $4bn hydroelectric dam on its principal tributary.
The disruption the dam may cause could mean major problems for water-poor Egypt, including the destruction of hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland, and even a potential famine for a sizeable portion of the population of over 105 million.
Almost a decade of negotiations with Ethiopia failed to draw up an agreement on how the dam will run, including at a recent round in Cairo in late August.
Sudan also faced a threat from the dam, and its descent into chaos means Egypt has been left high and dry in this debate.
Cairo's diplomats will be hoping that a path to peace to the south of their borders will mean the return of an ally here and greater stability for the entire region.
