US-China competition in Africa heats up with Beijing in the lead

Also, more than half a billion people are expected to be added to Africa's urban population by 2040, much higher than the growth seen in China's urban population in the two decades of China's economic and energy boom.

In short, Africa is poised to become both a major source and market for labour and energy. Needless to say, this depends on the ability of African governments to deliver the health and education needs that are required to sustain growth.

Africa's large labour force is equipped with the necessary skills for the jobs of the 21st century and beyond which will be a boon not only to the region but to the global economy. But this also depends on how the world's major economies, both in the West as well as the East, are able to establish the kind of relationships with Africa that allows it to make use of its potential. 

Africa also assumes added importance when addressing transnational threats. Pandemics, food insecurity, climate change and terrorism cannot be effectively addressed without integrating the continent in international efforts to combat these mounting challenges.

Africa with its abundant arable but under-utilised land possesses enormous potential in supplying food. Also, home to 30% of the world's rain forests, its role in managing climate change cannot be underestimated.

On the other hand, due to its poor medical infrastructure and fragile political systems, it is vulnerable to the spread of both pandemics and terrorism.

However, if the necessary investments are made, Africa can make a critical contribution in addressing these challenges.  Conversely if its vulnerabilities are not adequately addressed, it will pose mounting challenges for the world.

In short, Africa will be home to one quarter of the world's population by 2050 and hosts vast natural resources. Its importance is enhanced by the fact that it is situated along major sea lines of communication and trade in the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans.

It is, therefore, not surprising that both China and the United States are competing for influence in this promising continent.

American connection

The American connection to Africa dates from before the United States was founded. Liberia, one of the first independent countries in Africa, was established in 1822 by American freed slaves.

The US, however, showed little interest until the second half of the 20th century. Only after the end of the Cold War and the rising threat of terrorism and the countering of Chinese influence, did Washington show concrete interest. Until then, Washington was not very interested in Africa.

The one area where the US was fairly active in was conflict resolution — whether directly or through the United Nations.

Two areas where the US became increasingly active, albeit with considerable hesitation, were humanitarian interventions such as in Somalia in 1993 and combatting terrorism.

In 2007, the US set up AFRICOM (US Africa Command) as a military arrangement designed to build the capacities of African countries in combatting violent extremists and responding to crises.

In 2004, the Pan-Sahel Initiative was launched to assist the countries of the region in their counter-terrorism operations. This was followed in 2007, when the US Congress approved $500 million for the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Initiative (TSCTI) over six years to support countries involved in counter-terrorism against threats of Al-Qaeda operating in African countries, primarily Algeria, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Nigeria and Morocco.

Deeper involvement

Only under the Obama administration (2009-2017) did Washington start to look at Africa differently. In 2013, President Barack Obama launched Power Africa, an innovative partnership to double access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2014, the first US-Africa Leaders Summit was held.

And while US President Donald Trump all but ignored Africa, the Biden administration picked up where Obama left off. The Second Africa-US Summit took place in December 2022.

Secretary Biden has visited sub-Saharan Africa twice and North Africa once. As a follow-up to the summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin visited the continent in January 2022.

In August 2022, the Biden administration revealed its US Strategy on sub-Saharan Africa and, in October, its National Security Strategy. Both singled out Beijing as Washington's main competitor in Africa. Meanwhile, the National Security Strategy posits that Africa's evolution will be a central determinant of global and American futures in this century.

The Africa Strategy starts from the assumption that Africa is a core priority of US foreign policy. It is premised on the realisation of Africa's importance to American global priorities, such as the continent's rapidly growing population, one of the world's largest trading blocs, significant natural resources, and a sizable voting bloc in the United Nations.

But it also provides another rationale: US competition with China and Russia for influence in Africa.

Key objectives

This strategy has four key objectives. These are fostering openness and open societies; delivering democratic and security dividends; advancing pandemic recovery and economic opportunity; and supporting conservation, climate adaptation and a just energy transition.

The second United States-Africa Summit produced three important achievements: substantial financial commitments such as announcing $50 billion over a period of three years to support the numerous objectives laid out in the African Union's Agenda 2063; the promise to support African diplomatic interests at the United Nations and G20; and the MOUs signed related to African development frameworks and flagship projects such as the African Continental Free Trade Area.

While stopping short of a clear timetable for future summits, the 2022 Summit included some follow-up plans, and Biden announced that his first multi-country visit to Africa will be in 2023.

Chinese interests

Although China's interest in Africa began 2000, its relationship with Africa goes back many decades.

During the Cold War, China was often in direct competition with both the United States and the Soviet Union. During the reform and opening-up era, China's appetite for Africa's energy resources increased.

From the 1990s until President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, a booming China with accumulated financial surpluses started to invest heavily in building African infrastructure.

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008, China began to contemplate the necessity of proactively shaping the global environment to allow for its ascendance. The developing world — Africa in particular — became an arena in what appeared to be an increasing rivalry with the United States and the wider West.

Under President Xi, Africa gained additional importance. While economic relations remained important — military ties became important too.

Today Chinese policy towards Africa aspires to achieve four strategic interests.

1)Access to natural resources, particularly oil and gas.

2)Investments in Africa, a huge market for Chinese exported goods, might facilitate China's efforts to restructure its own economy away from labour-intensive industries, especially as labour costs in China increase.

3)China wants political legitimacy. The Chinese government believes that strengthening Sino-African relations helps raise China's own international influence. This is particularly important for China in canvassing international support for its policy on Taiwan.

4)China has sought a more constructive role as contributor to stability in the region, partly to mitigate security-related threats to China's economic interests

In 2000, Beijing set up the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation FOCAC to be a policy coordination mechanism between China and Africa. It has been meeting at the ministerial level every three years since. Four China-Africa Summits have also been held, the most recent in Dakar, Senegal in 2021.

At the Dakar Summit China committed $40 billion to the Africa 2063 programme and adopted the 2035 Vision for China-Africa Cooperation, which particularly stands out as the first mid to long-term cooperation plan jointly developed by China and Africa.

In addition, China deals with Africa through multilateral processes, particularly since its large-scale infrastructural development in the African continent which envisages an important role for Africa, in particular maritime connections — a part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

Big investment

Since 2000, China is Africa's largest two-way trading partner, hitting $254 billion in 2021, exceeding by a factor of four US-Africa trade. China is the largest provider of foreign direct investment (rising from $75 million in 2003 to $ 4.2 million in 2020. This is roughly double the level of US foreign direct investment.

President Xi has visited Africa nine times. China's new foreign minister recently paid his first overseas visit to Africa, as has every new Chinese foreign minister for the past 30 years. Since 1997, over 40 chiefs of state and heads of government from various African countries have visited China.

Meanwhile, China has maintained an arms-length policy when it comes to the politics in Africa. It has not only refrained from interfering in the internal affairs of countries, but has also mainly remained on the sidelines concerning conflict resolution diplomacy in Africa. Only recently it has shown interest in the Horn of Africa and appointed a special envoy for the sub-region and held a peace conference in Ethiopia.

Where China chose to raise its political profile was through involvement in UN peacekeeping operations. China is the world's ninth leading contributor, dwarfing the other permanent members of the UN Security Council.

On the other hand, military ties have been on the rise. In 2017, China completed its first overseas military base in Djibouti. There are also reports that China is looking to build naval bases on Africa's Atlantic Ocean coast, including in Equatorial Guinea, where Chinese companies have constructed and upgraded port facilities.

Chinese military supplies account for 20% of sub-Saharan Africa's arms imports by value compared to America's share at only 5%.

Despite difficulties China faced due the Covid-19 pandemic, there are no signs that its interest in Africa has waned. On the contrary, the first visit of the new foreign minister confirms that it will continue its activities on the continent with renewed vigour.

All China has to do is to continue what it has been doing for the past two decades in Africa. The US will simply have to catch up.

A favourable image

China has certain advantages that the US does not possess. Some Africans aspire to replicate China's rapid economic development and believe that their nations can benefit from China's recent experience in lifting itself out of poverty.

African officials overwhelmingly view China's role in Africa positively, welcoming China's heavy emphasis on government-to-government contracts with few, if any, strings attached.

Many African leaders praise China's contributions to their nations' infrastructure, highlighting visible improvements that contribute to expanded economic activity, job creation for local workers, and tangible improvements to roads, rails, bridges, and other transportation networks — all things that benefit ordinary citizens, even if indirectly.

A survey released this January by South Africa's Ichikowitz Family Foundation shows that youths aged 18 to 24 across 15 African nations see China as the foreign power with the biggest positive impact on their lives.

That's a turnaround from two years ago, when the same exercise put the US in top position.

Overcoming challenges

On the other hand, the US, in its competition with China in Africa, faces a number of challenges, including how to reconcile its commitment to spreading democratic rule with the need to "deal" as called for its latest National Security Strategy.

The second challenge for the US is how to overcome the disappointment associated with the first summit by ensuring that its new commitments are rapidly fulfilled. This will involve extra efforts by the US administration in encouraging private corporations to overcome their hesitation towards Africa.

While competition between China and the United States in Africa is expected to continue in the coming decades, it remains to be seen how African countries will be able to utilise it for their benefit.