Moscow strikes: A bitter pill for Putin to swallow

The willingness of the Ukrainians to strike targets inside Russia represents a significant challenge for Putin, who has claimed one of his main justifications for launching his “special military operation” against Ukraine was to secure Russia’s borders

Ukrainian air defences fire to stop drones in a relentless wave of bombardments targeting Kyiv early Tuesday morning in Kyiv, Ukraine, May 30, 2023.

Moscow strikes: A bitter pill for Putin to swallow

Con Coughlin

last update on 30 May 2023

The wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow marks an important turning point in the Ukraine conflict, one where it appears Kyiv is no longer prepared to abide by Washington’s concerns about making direct attacks against Russia.

While Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks, which primarily targeted a prosperous suburb of the capital known as Moscow’s “Beverly Hills”, the Russians are under no illusions about who was ultimately responsible.

AFP — A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023.

In an audio message shared to Telegram on Tuesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s influential Wagner Group, launched a blistering attack against the Russian defence ministry for failing to prevent the attack.

Prigozhin, whose Wagner Group has been at the forefront of the recent Russian offensive to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, has previously warned the Kremlin that failure to achieve victory in Ukraine could result in a 1917-style Russian revolution that overthrows Moscow’s ruling elite.

After Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of trying to “frighten” the Russian people with the drone attacks, Prigozhin posted a message asking why Russia’s security forces were allowing the drone attacks on civilian areas to take place.

Major escalation

The attacks on the prosperous Moscow suburb of Rublyovka certainly represent a major escalation in the 15-month-old Ukraine conflict.

Previously, while the Russians have made attacking key aspects of Ukraine’s infrastructure a central part of their military strategy, the Ukrainians have been more circumspect, mainly concentrating their military operations on confronting Russian forces occupying Ukrainian territory in the Donbas region and Crimea.

A view of an explosion in the Moscow region, Russia May 30, 2023, in this screengrab from a video obtained by Reuters.

A key factor in Ukraine’s restraint over attacking targets in Russia itself has been concerns expressed by Washington about the risks of escalating the conflict with Russia.

A key factor in Ukraine's restraint over attacking targets in Russia itself has been concerns expressed by Washington about the risks of escalating the conflict with Russia.

From the start of the conflict in February last year, US President Joe Biden has expressed concerns about the war developing into a wider confrontation between Moscow and the Nato alliance, with many Western members of the alliance providing Kyiv with military support.

Biden's concerns are not entirely without foundation, as Putin has repeatedly used the threat of resorting to Russia's massive nuclear firepower as a deterrent against Western powers maintaining their support for Kyiv.

Not only have these concerns meant that the US and allies have been reluctant to provide Ukraine with military equipment, such as long-range missiles, tanks and warplanes, that can be used by Ukraine to attack Russian territory, but it has also led the Biden administration to actively caution the Ukrainian military against launching such attacks.

Zelensky takes matters into its own hands

As the recent leak of highly-classified Pentagon files has demonstrated, plans approved by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to expand his country's military effort beyond liberating Ukrainian territory to attacking Russia itself were cancelled following the intervention of Washington's military establishment earlier this year.

According to a recent report in The Washington Post, Zelensky plotted 'behind closed doors' attacks on Russian territory earlier this year, which included attacking a pipeline carrying Russian oil to Hungary, before being forced to drop the plans under pressure from Washington.

Exclusive: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in private meetings, has plotted bold attacks inside Russia, leaked U.S. intelligence shows https://t.co/4QZY0QdIJw
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) May 13, 2023

The intelligence papers, which include personal correspondence between the Ukrainian leader and the country's top brass, reveal that, despite Zelensky's public claims that Western weapons would not be used to attack Russia, he planned to use long-range missiles supplied by the West to strike targets deep within Russian territory.

But while the Biden administration's initial reservations about Ukraine conducting attacks against Russia originally succeeded in persuading Kyiv to scale down its military plans, recent evidence suggests the Ukrainians have found the means to attack targets deep within Russia, irrespective of Washington's concerns.

In recent months Western military observers have reported a number of suspected Ukrainian drone strikes taking place deep within Russia, including attacks against two Russian airbases, one of them located just 150 miles from Moscow.

In pictures: Ukraine war: Moscow and Kyiv trade flurry of drone strikes

In addition, Ukrainian engineers are reported to have designed a "people's missile" using similar technology to the German V1 "doodlebug" rockets that terrorised London towards the end of the Second World War, and which have twice the range of the US-supplied Himar rocket systems.

AFP — Local residents take shelter in a metro station in the centre of Kyiv during a Russian missile strike on May 29, 2023.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians have been busy developing their own fleet of long-range drones, which can carry payloads of 300 kilograms and fly up to several thousand kilometres, depending on their configuration.

Having the ability to produce their own weaponry certainly allows the Ukrainians a degree of flexibility in choosing their targets — a luxury they were not allowed when they were obliged to accept the constraints imposed on their military operations by the West.

Ukrainians have been busy developing their own fleet of long-range drones. Having the ability to produce their own weaponry certainly allows them a degree of flexibility in choosing their targets — a luxury they were not allowed when they were obliged to accept Western constraints imposed on them.

More recently Ukraine's willingness to take the fight to the Russian heartlands has resulted in a drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month, which the Russians claimed was a botched assassination attempt against Putin, as well as attacks against Russian infrastructure, such as ammunition dumps and energy supplies.

Ukraine has also been accused of collaborating with anti-Putin Russian partisan groups to launch attacks across the Russian border.

A group calling itself the Russian Volunteer Corps was accused of carrying out a recent attack in Russia's Belgorod border region, during which it called on the Russian people to rebel against the country's ruling elite.

The Russian Volunteer Corps describes itself as "a volunteer formation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine," although it is unclear what, if any, ties it has to the Ukrainian military.

Even so, the willingness of the Ukrainians to strike targets inside Russia represents a significant challenge for Putin, who has claimed one of his main justifications for launching his "special military operation" against Ukraine was to secure Russia's borders.

The willingness of the Ukrainians to strike targets inside Russia represents a significant challenge for Putin, who has claimed one of his main justifications for launching his "special military operation" against Ukraine was to secure Russia's borders.

The fact, therefore, that, far from securing Russia's own borders, his invasion of Ukraine has resulted in Russian residential neighbourhoods coming under attack, will be a bitter pill for Putin to swallow.

With Russian battlefield casualties estimated now to be in excess of 200,000 killed and wounded, the conflict has already raised questions about Putin's ability to survive in office.

Certainly, a Russian president who cannot guarantee the security of his country's borders in unlikely to survive in office for long.

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