This failure represents a fundamental breakdown in their primary mission to secure the border. The attackers must have gathered sufficient intelligence in order to cross with minimal resistance and then get so far in.
The Russian forces seemed to be entirely unaware of the incursion for enough time for that to happen, or at the very least, this is the narrative the Ukrainian propaganda successfully portrays. It is astounding how long it took for the Russian forces to neutralise the lightly armed attackers.
Belgorod serves as a critical hub for supply and transportation for the Russian forces engaged in the north-eastern sector of the front near Kharkiv. It has been the target of numerous air and missile attacks, and so is a military centre that seemed to lack proper defence.
What does the incident tell us?
Several conclusions can be drawn from these events.
Firstly, it appears that the operation was conducted as a "reconnaissance in depth and by fire," with the results likely being shared with Ukrainian military intelligence services. It is plausible that fighters affiliated with the Russian opposition carried it out, to distance the Ukrainian leadership from any potential diplomatic or political embarrassments.
Secondly, the Russian forces' reaction revealed confusion and hesitation. The 48 hours delay in announcing the elimination of the incursion was perplexing, considering that the operations occurred only a few kilometres away from the major battlefields on the other side of the border.
That suggests that the local Russian commanders on the ground lacked the authority to swiftly mobilise forces and redirect them from their original deployments to suppress the infiltration. Several hours passed before the matter was escalated to the Russian staff in Moscow for effective intervention.
This reveals a longstanding structural flaw in Russian operational management. Authority tends to be centralised among senior staff, limiting the initiative of local field officers. It has proven costly for the Russian leadership and led to significant losses during the initial months of the conflict in Ukraine.
Thirdly, the Belgorod attack may have been part of a smokescreen to obscure Ukraine's bigger objectives, and the plans of its army, rather than those of their supposed allies within the Russian militia said to have run the incursion.
The intense Russian bombardment near Zaporizhzhia, resulting in the shutdown of the nuclear plant there, suggests that the Russian leadership, to some extent, believes that the main Ukrainian offensive will occur in Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine's looming counter-offensive aims to separate the Russian-occupied regions of Donbas and Luhansk from Crimea, thereby putting the latter in a precarious position as it is no longer directly connected to mainland Russia, except through the Kerch Bridge linking it to the Krasnodar region.
Recent exercises conducted on the bridge to defend against potential future attacks reinforces this potential strategy.
Ability to seize tactical initiative
Fourthly, the breakthrough near Belgorod highlighted the Ukrainian forces' ability to seize tactical initiative even hours after Kyiv lost control of another town, Bakhmut.
