Moscow has said that it downed two drones that were targeting the Kremlin Tuesday night, accusing Kyiv of attempting to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin said the drones were neutralised by special services using electronic radar assets.
Mr Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the state news agency, adding there was no material damage to buildings.
Reportedly, this is the moment when a drone hit the Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/MiUob8fSV9
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 3, 2023
Ukraine says it is making no comment.
It has been over a year since the war in Ukraine erupted and there is no end in sight, with leaked Pentagon papers suggesting that there will be no movement towards a political settlement this year, in part because Russian and Ukrainian positions have hardened.
Read more: Pentagon leaks show Western resolve in Ukraine war
Ukraine, backed by the United States and its allies, has vowed to continue fighting until it “recaptures all the territory it lost since 2014”.
Meanwhile, Russia seems intent on improving its position and shows no interest in ending hostilities, repeating only that it remains open to negotiations.
The US, which has cast the conflict as a global challenge pitting democracies against autocracies, continues to pour military and economic aid into Ukraine, so that it can continue the war.
Europeans also support Ukraine but hope that Russia, under mounting pressure from sanctions, will eventually come to the negotiating table.
China has hinted that it will not allow the defeat of Russia, but nor will it accept an open-ended conflict, and while it is apparently considering whether to provide lethal weapons to Russia, Beijing may grow impatient and choose to mediate.
Read more: Xi’s visit to Moscow highlights Putin’s increased global isolation
Drawing red ideological lines
The rest of the world, suffering the economic consequences of the war, does not want to take sides and just wants a resolution, which begs the question: why has a settlement been difficult to achieve so far? Indeed, what are the prospects for this?
For a start, the rationale behind Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine has not disappeared.
Rather, it has been reinforced, because Moscow is now even more convinced that the West wants weaken Russia, as evidenced in the ‘Concept of Foreign Policy (FPC) of the Russian Federation’ document, released on 31 March 2023.
Read more: Russia’s foreign policy gets an update
Second, the war has become ideological. For the West, it is autocracy versus democracy.
For Russia, it is an existential threat. As per the FPC, it is about the West “weakening Russia in every possible way, including [by] undermining its constructive civilisational role”.
Unfortunately, history shows that ideological wars are the most enduring, and Russia cannot afford defeat. It certainly cannot give up Crimea, nor can it withdraw from the land bridge connecting the peninsula to mainland Russia.
When it comes to the Donbas, while Russia may not be able to incorporate the whole region as planned, it will try to keep the territory it currently holds.
Finally, it will insist on guarantees for the safety, security, and cultural rights of Russian speakers in the region. This is a tall order and cannot be achieved in the short-term.
Two very different outlooks
The political outlooks of the warring parties are fundamentally at odds. On the one hand, the West’s political model is based on the diffusion of power, a system of checks and balances, and pragmatism.
The Russian mentality, on the other hand, is based on immutable beliefs that are reflected in its political system, such as the belief in exceptionalism, the acceptance of a centralised authority, and a security phobia stemming from centuries of invasion from all directions.
