Pentagon leaks show Western resolve in Ukraine war  

Opposing sides of the conflict are engaging in narrative wars using the documents to vindicate their arguments

The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022, more than a week after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Reuters
The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022, more than a week after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Pentagon leaks show Western resolve in Ukraine war  

As a historian, I am always excited when new documents are unveiled even if they pertain to events that happened decades or centuries ago. But document leaks about an ongoing conflict are quite a different matter. The recent leak of documents from the Pentagon indicate that we are in a brave new world of intelligence leaks.

Armed FBI officers have arrested a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard over the alleged leak of classified military intelligence online.

Authorities raided the Massachusetts home of 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, a member of the Guard’s intelligence wing, on Thursday 13 April.

Video showed the suspect in handcuffs as he was marched by heavily-armed federal agents from a home in North Dighton, Massachusetts, wearing shorts and a t-shirt.

The documents were released on various social media outlets such as Twitter, Telegram, Discord and 4chan.

Journalists and government agencies scoured the cyberspace to pick them up. Some of the documents have been obviously false and doctored but many are, in fact, genuine.

Even if the British, the French and the Ukrainians have been quick to deny their veracity, Pentagon officials themselves have confirmed the authenticity of at least some of the documents.

Narrative wars

But what of the content of the documents and what they reveal about the state of the war in Ukraine? As expected, various sides have attempted to use the leaked information to vindicate their arguments.

Yang Sheng, a senior reporter for Global Times, an online outlet close to the Chinese government, was quick to claim that the leak showed “serious disunity within the West” and that it had helped “damage the morale of the Ukrainian military and the confidence of Western countries in continuing to support Kiev.”

Anatol Lieven, a leading figure at the Quincy Institute, said the leak’s revelation of American and European boots on the ground raised “serious issues of legality and democratic accountability” for the Western governments. In line with the think tank’s general direction, Lieven used the leak to raise caution about the West’s support for Kiev.

Narrative wars aside, what do the leaked documents tell us about the state of the war?

Much focus has been on the damage brought about by leaking of information that could be useful to Russian military planners — especially ahead of the spring, when drying of the mud is expected to be followed by new Ukrainian offensives. But a ‘military secret’ leaked to the whole world doesn’t have much use for the adversary.

Western resolve evident

Looking at the leaked docs more closely, we can see how they speak to the resolve of the United States and its Nato allies to back Ukraine, despite the careful stance of President Biden who has been clear that the US doesn’t want to be implicated in a direct confrontation with the nuclear-powered Russia.

The documents speak to the resolve of the United States and its Nato allies to back Ukraine and show Washington's commitment to leaving no stone unturned in getting Ukraine the weaponry it needs.

The documents show the US commitment to leaving no stone unturned in getting Ukraine the weaponry it needs.

AP
An American soldier walks past a line of M1 Abrams tanks, Nov. 29, 2016, at Fort Carson in Colorado Springs, Colo. U.S. officials say the Pentagon is speeding up its delivery of Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

The details of a visit by Ukrainian officials to a US military base in Wiesbaden, Germany includes conversations with General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and General Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe since last year.

By all accounts, Milley and Cavoli seem dedicated to Ukraine and sensitive to her military needs; not just in front of the cameras but in private meetings.

Open secret confirmed

Other documents have revealed an open secret: the presence of a small number of special forces from UK, US, France, Netherlands and Latvia. While Moscow and other opponents of Kiev will surely use this as evidence of Nato's direct complicity, this also shows that an increasing number of European states are dedicating resources and manpower to help Kiev.

According to some documents, 9 out of 12 "combat credible" Ukrainian brigades are being equipped by Nato and trained by US and Nato military personnel.

AFP
Ukrainian serviceman Oleksandr, 30, a drone pilot of the 5 Separate Assault Brigade, attends a training exercise in the Donetsk region on April 7, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The US is also shown in the documents to be attempting hard to bring countries from around the world to Kiev's side. A particularly sensitive cache shows the US trying to convince South Koreans to sell shells to the US that will be used to replenish the stocks sent to Ukraine; thus working around Seoul's stance not give direct lethal aid to Kiev.

The documents show an increasing number of European states are dedicating resources and manpower to help Kiev and that the US is trying hard to bring countries from around the world to Kiev's side.

More importantly, a document entitled "Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine", dating from 28 February, shows the US putting increasing pressure on the Israelis to provide Ukraine with weapons such as the Indo-Israeli surface-to-air missile system Barak 8, the mobile air defence system SPYDER or the fire-and-forget anti-tank missile Spike.

Israel prizes its security ties with Russia, which are a critical to its undeclared war with Iran. For the US to push Tel Aviv on this matter speaks to the high priority the war in Ukraine has for the Americans.

Other documents show the desperation of the Russian side. Why else would the pro-Kremlin militia, the Wagner group, attempt to import weapons from Turkey and Mali or consider recruiting convicts to fight in Ukraine?

Impressive intelligence capacity

A hair-raising aspect of the leak is its unveiling of Washington's impressive intelligence capacity. This is somewhat ironic since the fact that the leak could happen obviously shows flaws in the system. Still, the leaked documents confirm that Ukraine has been able to inflict significant damage on the Russian army due to intelligence help from the US.

AFP
A Belarusian volunteer fires a 120mm mortar round at a front line position near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, on April 9, 2023

The fact that US spies on even its closest allies such as South Korea, the UK and Israel is not news; nothing that we didn't already see in the 'spygate' of 2013. But the documents do show how closely the 'eyes' of the US intelligence community surveil developments — and not just those related to Russia.

One document reveals conversations between Egypt's President al-Sisi and senior Egyptian officials about 'secret' weapons sale to Russia (Cairo and Moscow have both denied this.) Another shows that US knew about a discussion between senior Iranian leaders about an upcoming visit by Rafael Grossi, director general of the UN's atomic watchdog.

In fact, the document shows that US is also monitoring the watchdog itself. Other documents point to US watching Hungary, Serbia, South Korea, Israel and other countries.

If there is an overall lesson to be had, it is one for all sides: few 'secrets' will remain secret for long.

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