Politics

Sudan’s perilous road ahead

Whoever emerges the winner must meet certain expectations and understand that backsliding into Islamism is not acceptable or the conflict is at risk of reigniting once more

AFP

Whoever emerges the winner must meet certain expectations and understand that backsliding into Islamism is not acceptable or the conflict is at risk of reigniting once more

Sudan’s perilous road ahead

Alberto M. Fernandez

last update on 30 Apr 2023

While diplomats attempted to facilitate a humanitarian truce in Khartoum, fighting on 16 April between tribal factions — some of whom were given or stole weapons from a police arsenal — destroyed the centre of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur.

The fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and their comrades in the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is entering its third week. So far, the struggle has not turned out as both factions had expected.

A man raises his arm in support as he drives near Sudanese army soldiers loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, manning a position in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan, on April 20, 2023.

The RSF accomplished some important objectives on the first day of the fighting but did not expand beyond that. The army has advanced, but despite statements by field commanders that the war would be over in a few days, this has not happened yet.

At some point, however, one of side will prevail. It seems that the army is slowly winning while its opponent is still resisting.

However, both factions have their weaknesses. The RSF today are part of the ambitious project of the Dagalo family, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Leadership in this group mostly comprises family-related individuals.

On its part, the Sudanese Armed Forces also has its internal factions based on individual, regional and political loyalties. SAF has never been fully cleansed from its ties with the Islamist regime of deposed president Omar al-Bashir.

Kenyan students in Sudan get caught near clashes pic.twitter.com/oYhL6sNOQX
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 24, 2023

It was no surprise that leaders of the former regime who were imprisoned in Kober Prison and the leading Islamist television channel, Tayba satellite channel, are enthusiastic supporters of the army and see it as their best hope to return to power.

Fears over tribalistic war

The worst thing that can happen now in Sudan is that it descends into chaotic, tribalistic war as we saw in Somalia or in the “African World War” in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We have seen some of what this could become in the fighting in El Geneina.

The policy of the regime in Khartoum for decades was to pit one tribe or ethnic group against another in the country’s marginalised regions. That policy has now born bitter fruit in the country’s centre.

As the Arabic proverb says, “the magic has turned on the magician.”

The policy of the regime in Khartoum for decades was to pit one tribe or ethnic group against another in the country's marginalised regions. That policy has now born bitter fruit in the country's centre.

But the second worst thing that can happen to Sudan is a return of the al-Bashir regime or —what is more likely — an al-Bashir 2.0 regime with new names following the same old paths which impoverished and destroyed the rich country for more than 30 years (although al-Bashir ruled for 29 years, the previous regimes also followed some of the same policies).

A return of anything like the al-Bashir regime by way of the Sudanese army should be a clear red line for the international community.

Once this war is over, and may that be soon, Sudan will require emergency, humanitarian and development assistance even more than it did before the war.

Damaged buildings in South Khartoum locality, Sudan April 25, 2023.

Many of Sudan's brightest and most talented people are fleeing the country to escape the death and destruction. This is as big a loss for the country as is the physical destruction.

Sudan: Thousands of internally displaced people and refugees are scrambling for safety as violence grips the country.

UN humanitarians warn of disastrous consequences as many aid operations have been forced to pause due to the fighting. https://t.co/DoZ6uicNcv
— United Nations (@UN) April 28, 2023

Idealistic v realistic expectations

While an ideal situation would see Sudan return to democracy for the first time in decades — and that should be the mid to long-term goal to work toward.

The immediate, which is perhaps more cynical and realistic, is to make sure that the winner in the conflict (assuming that both sides don't fracture into several new factions and the war continues) abides by certain expectations.

Those expectations would include that the leaders of the former regime are still prosecuted (indeed it would be better to ship them to international courts as soon as possible) and that the former National Congress Party — essentially the Sudanese version of the Muslim Brotherhood — is still banned.

In addition, the liberal changes in the legal code made by former prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, should remain in place, and any former NCP leaders not in prison should be banned from electoral politics.

More generally, the winners in the "War of the Generals" need to understand that backsliding into Islamism is not acceptable.

More generally, the winners in the "War of the Generals" need to understand that backsliding into Islamism is not acceptable.

Such a focused, minimalist agenda should be one that is broadly acceptable by countries most interested in Sudan's stability and most capable of helping it — namely, the West, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Those are the minimum conditions which need to be set in stone. Given the damage that the previous Islamist regime in Sudan caused regionally (not only to its own people), these are reasonable demands and the international community has every right to make them of Sudan's rulers.

Danger of arrogance

There will be a terrible but understandable reaction by the winning side to wrap themselves in the national flag in order to depict Sudan as the winner.

We are already seeing propaganda attempts to do this by both SAF and RSF. The danger here is that the arrogance of the winner will ignite further conflicts even if the losing side is badly defeated.

This picture taken on April 16, 2023, shows Sudanese army soldiers, loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, posing for a picture at the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) base in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan.

There is still an important democratic transition to be managed in Sudan that could possibly take years. The sooner this happens the better, and may God help those who are working to achieve this.

But the immediate task will be to manage the transition from now to what is to be — from the Generals' War to…something else. We risk falling into a trap if we ignore this intermediate challenge while focusing only on the immediate (stopping the war and helping the suffering).

The end goal, which is essential, should be a democratic transition — which is what the Sudanese people demand and deserve.

-Alberto M. Fernandez is an American diplomat and former charge d'affaires of the US Embassy in Khartoum

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