Sudan clashes point to broader battle for control in Africa

These reports have uncovered the cooperation between the two parties in battles across Africa, as well as the sharing of profits in Sudan's lucrative gold mining industry.

Hemedti has also lent his support to the commander of the Libyan National Army, Major General Khalifa Haftar, providing him with equipment and fighters in his battles against the internationally-recognised Libyan government in Tripoli.

In return, Haftar has offered to aid his Sudanese ally in his battle against the army commander, al-Burhan, forming an alliance that transcends borders in North Africa.

US return to Libya speaks volumes

Weeks before the outbreak of conflict in Sudan, the United States launched a diplomatic and intelligence offensive in Libya, marking a significant return of American participation in the Libya conflict. 

CIA director William Burns and senior State Department officials conducted a field tour in Benghazi, Haftar's stronghold, and in Tripoli, the seat of the official government. Simultaneously, the White House announced a special strategy for Libya — one of the few Arab countries for which the Joe Biden administration announced its vision.

The US return to Libya sends a strong message: The US will not allow Russia to establish a strategic foothold in Libya, whether through a naval base in Sirte or a land base in Al-Jufra.

The US used a sticks and carrots approach with Haftar in an attempt to persuade him to abandon his cooperation with the Wagner group. It also implicitly blessed the oil deal between him and his rival, Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh.

Horn of Africa's growing global importance

In addition to opposing Russia's establishment of a military base in Libya, it appears that Washington and the West also oppose Russia's strategic presence in Port Sudan and the ports of the Red Sea, which overlook the Bab al-Mandab Strait in Yemen where 30% of global trade passes through.

Read more: The invisible war in Middle East waterways

The United States, Western countries, China, and Japan have established military bases in Djibouti to secure sea lanes and international energy lines in the Horn of Africa.

In recent years, China has quietly expanded its influence in Africa through diplomacy and aid. It succeeded in establishing military bases, including in Djibouti — one of its most important military bases outside its territory.

Read more: Why do so many foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti?

Russia and the United States have also entered the arena of African competition. Russia and China are participating in military alliances and exercises in Africa, including a recent one with South Africa in the Indian Ocean.

Russia has also strengthened its African presence through the Wagner army and support for various coups. It has led successful forays into Mali, Libya and Central Africa, effectively push back the French and reducing Western influence there.

The US, on the other hand, has prioritised Africa, hosting a summit that promotes the democratic model, carrying out diplomatic tours to the continent, and promising economic aid and military training to African countries to discourage them from engaging with Wagner and receiving aid from China.

It has also designated Wagner as a "cross-border criminal organisation" and intensified its military presence and operations against the Islamic State (IS) and other terrorist organisations.

Read more: US counter-terrorism efforts increasingly focusing on Africa

It is against this international backdrop that Sudan's conflict has erupted. Both al-Burhan and Hemedti have their own respective regional and foreign backers. With several factors at play, the conflict could potentially escalate into a proxy war with regional and international ramifications.

The hope is that the conflict does not morph into something bigger as we have seen in places like Syria and Ukraine which has had devastating consequences not only for the local population but has also had regional and international knock-on effects.