War strategies of a new world order

This was demonstrated by President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow on 20 March, Putin's visit to China before the Ukraine war and the statements made by both leaders during the two trips.

A rising China

The battle between a rising China and a declining United States can be seen in the strategies announced by both countries at the end of last year.

President Xi presented his vision as a continuation of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and announced a more assertive foreign policy after giving a "Chinese vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security" at the Communist Party conference last October.

China is pursuing more proactive policies, as demonstrated by its sponsorship of an agreement to resume diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. By taking such bold initiatives, Beijing is demonstrating its ability to impact the region and the world.

This is a far cry from its previous cautious and more reactive approach. But Beijing is changing its behaviour at a time where it sees Washington abandoning its old "one China" policy — especially after the new enhanced relations with Taiwan.

A capable competitor

On his part, Biden considers the Far East vital to the prosperity of the American economy. That is why the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy in October and the White House's "broader national security strategy" categorised Chinese hegemony in Asia as the "most serious" threat to US national security and a "more capable competitor."

Read more: Biden's security strategy reflects waning US interest in the Middle East

After decades of fluctuations in relations and influence — from Richard Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972 to America's neutralisation of China in the "Cold War" against the Soviet Union — Washington officially views Beijing as a "competitor."

Under President Obama, Beijing was considered a "centre of influence" and then entered into "unprecedented" cooperation with it before President Donald Trump executed his "America First" agenda, viewing China as a "challenge to America's power, influence and interests."

In the 1980s, China replaced the Soviet Union in the American doctrine. Then, in 1994 under Bill Clinton, China became a "partner."

The new US National Defense Strategy sees Russia as "retreating and exhausted" and less dangerous than China — even with the war in Ukraine still being "an immediate and ongoing threat to the regional security order in Europe and a source of disruption and instability globally."

Ukraine factor

However, the Ukraine war has motivated the warring sides to strengthen existing alliances and even forge new ones.  

On his part, Biden strengthened alliances in Europe and the Pacific, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), the American-Japanese-Indian-Australian Quad, and the American-British-Australian AUKUS. President Xi also exploited the war to bring Russia into China's fold, forming several regional and international blocs.

A good lesson history teaches us is that empires give up their hegemony only after a war.

America and China are still pursuing diplomacy, the most recent of which was the Biden-Xi meeting in Bali, Indonesia, where the two great powers discussed opportunities for partnership, putting aside frictions and conflicts over "air balloons."