Israel and the 'New Syria'

The fall of the Assad regime shocked the world in December 2024. Will 2025 be the year that another previously unthinkable prospect—peace between Israel and Syria—is realised?

Israel and the 'New Syria'

The fact that indirect negotiations are taking place between Syria and Israel across several countries, aimed at discussing security arrangements, is no longer a secret. But the true mystery lies in just how far these negotiations will go—particularly following confirmation from the White House that President Donald Trump, who met President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh on 14 May, gauged his receptiveness to Syria joining the Abraham Accords.

Given the importance of such a prospect, we have dedicated our June cover story, titled "Syria and Israel: the price of peace," to exploring the history of Syria-Israel relations and the prospects for future peace.

We highlight the fact that contacts existed well before Syria's independence in 1946 and the creation of the Israeli state in 1948. And we also reveal details of secret negotiations and visits by Zionist leaders, such as Moshe Sharett and Chaim Weizmann, to Damascus, as well as encounters between Syrian independence figures, like Shukri al-Quwatli, and Zionist leaders, including Eliyahu Sasson, at the Grand Bloudan Hotel in 1936. These historical milestones culminate in negotiations between Israeli leaders and President Adib al-Shishakli in 1951.

Under Hafez al-Assad, a disengagement agreement between the two countries was reached in May 1974, following the October 1973 War. And following the collapse of the Soviet Union—an ally of Syria at the time—al-Assad entered into direct US-sponsored negotiations with Israel after the Madrid Conference in 1991.

In the mid-1990s, the US hosted meetings between Syrian Chief of Staff Hikmat al-Shihabi and his Israeli counterparts, Ehud Barak and Amnon Shahak, which established principles for security arrangements. A pivotal meeting in 2000 between Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa and then-Prime Minister Barak aimed to clinch a peace agreement that included diplomatic relations and the return of the Golan Heights—which Israel occupied and annexed in 1967—back to Syria.

We reveal details of encounters in the 1930s between Zionist leaders and Syrian independence figures, like Shukri Quwatli

Evolving frameworks

Throughout this period, negotiations adhered to the principle of "land for peace"—meaning Damascus would get the Golan back, in exchange for establishing diplomatic ties. The last major attempt was when al-Assad and President Bill Clinton met in Geneva in March 2000. The Syrian president passed away a few months later, but secret negotiations under his son, Bashar al-Assad, were picked up again.

In 2008, Türkiye facilitated several rounds, and al-Assad even agreed to meet Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. But Israel's war on Gaza in 2008-2009 threw a wrench into the works, and the meeting never took place. Efforts resumed in 2010, with US envoy to Syria Frederic Hof mediating between al-Assad and Netanyahu. At that point, the negotiation framework evolved from "land for peace" to "land for strategic alignment"—in other words, Syria would regain the Golan in exchange for abandoning its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah.

Hof spoke to Al Majalla as part of this cover story, discussing prospects following the Trump-Sharaa meeting. These ranged from limited security arrangements and a conflict-prevention hotline to full peace negotiations. The article also includes Syrian and Israeli perspectives on peace and the pivotal role Türkiye played—and continues to play, particularly after the fall of the Assad regime.

Following the collapse of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024, Israel launched 700 air strikes, targeting land, air, and naval assets as well as research centres. It also conducted incursions into Syria, occupying the buffer zone under the disengagement agreement, Mount Hermon, and strategic water sources. An Israeli raid near the Syrian presidential palace was accompanied by a warning to the new government not to target Syria's Druze population.

In 2010, the negotiation framework evolved, where Syria could regain the Golan in exchange for abandoning its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah

Main players

With Iran and Hezbollah withdrawing from Syria and Russia's influence waning, Türkiye and Israel have emerged as main players. But Tel Aviv is trying to limit Ankara's influence and has moved to prevent the establishment of Turkish bases in Syria by bombing potential sites. The two nations narrowly escaped direct confrontation after Trump arranged a meeting between Turkish and Israeli envoys in Azerbaijan to establish a "hotline" and prevent conflict.

These meetings have since evolved to include Syria's participation, and the agenda has expanded to include arrangements in southern Syria aimed at ensuring Israel's security and preventing a repeat of October 7, when Hamas launched a devastating attack on Israel from Gaza. This includes cooperation on countering Iranian presence, halting arms smuggling to Hezbollah, and dismantling jihadist cells attempting to establish footholds in the south.

So far, discussions have been confined to the security domain, but some officials have expressed interest in pursuing a more permanent peace. Will Israel under Netanyahu and the emerging "New Syria" move beyond security arrangements toward political engagement and a peace accord? Could Israeli businessmen contribute to rebuilding Syria? Might Damascus follow in the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco's footsteps to join the Abraham Accords, or does its case differ, given Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights in 1967 and the further occupation of Syrian lands after the fall of al-Assad? 

What will be the cost of peace between Syria and Israel? Will Syria have to make painful concessions in exchange for stability and reconstruction? The fall of the Assad regime shocked the world in December 2024. Will 2025 be the year that another previously unthinkable prospect—peace between Israel and Syria—is realised?

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