The intelligence failure that led Israel to misread Egypt in 1973 is, in fact, the same as that which led it to believe Hamas was not looking for war.

As the Israel-Hamas war rages on in Gaza, the region runs the risk of a major escalation

The long-term effect of the Gaza war is hard to predict, but it will have regional and global repercussions at different levels

Without dismantling Hamas, the conflict will continue and there will be no unified governance for the Palestinians

Hopes to benefit from greater regional cooperation and deeper economic ties with Israel are shattered, just as joblessness hits 23% and growth has stalled. How it handles the crisis will now be key.

Israel's bombing was too aggressive, and then its ground campaign faltered, while a unified Arab response and wider international unease have transformed international politics in the region.

Hamas can continue fighting without much military or financial support, or it can opt for a political solution to end the war via negotiations, which could effectively lead to their expulsion.