Egypt’s export dream meets an import reality

The populous Arab country needs to increase its non-oil exports to bring in much-needed foreign currency and raise living standards, but it cannot afford to do so by importing

Reuters

A container ship transits the Suez Canal on 15 February 2022.

Egypt’s export dream meets an import reality

Amr Emam

last update on 18 Sep 2026

Egypt has set itself the ambitious target of doubling the value of its non-oil exports from today’s $48bn to $100bn by 2030, but there is a problem: to reach that target would require imports of around $130bn, which would further widen an already perilous national trade deficit.

Industry Minister Khaled Hashim is aware of the issues. “We urgently need a clear strategy to grow exports without simply inflating our import bill,” he said in June, noting that 12 of Egypt’s 13 local export councils already run negative trade balances, with heavy reliance on imports.

The $100bn export goal was first envisaged by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in July 2020 and is now integrated into the country’s broader industrial development and production plans, with legislative amendments aiming to attract more industrial investment.

Egyptian leaders want to encourage an industrial revolution in a country that for long seen itself as an agricultural production hub. To this end, the Ministry of Industry has eased the allocation of land for industrial investors, resolved energy supply problems for industrial facilities, and created a one-window shop for the issuance of factory licenses. While this progress helps, it will take more to increase non-oil exports to foreign markets.

Economic priority

Sisi’s target came from his understanding that higher exports are essential to Egypt’s economic survival, and in this he is not wrong. Economists describe it as a ‘do-or-die’ priority for the country, so delaying is not an option. Waleed Gaballah, an independent economist, said exports are inseparable from Egypt’s economic stability, directly affecting its sustainable development. “It is no exaggeration to call exports an economic survival issue,” he said.

Gaballah explained that increasing exports would bring in foreign currency, reduce dependence on foreign loans, and affect state budget allocations, ultimately improving Egyptians’ living conditions. The welfare of Egyptians is therefore linked to the success or otherwise of Egyptian goods and services in foreign markets.

AFP — An employee counts Egyptian pounds at a currency exchange in downtown Cairo.

Increasing foreign currency inflows is a prerequisite for stabilising the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound, especially against the US dollar, Egypt's main import and export currency. The strength of the pound is closely linked to the price of commodities in the local market. This affects Egyptians’ purchasing power, which has hit rock bottom in recent years after several devaluations.

Exports are also important for job creation. Around 6% of Egypt’s workforce of 34.8 million were out of work in the first quarter of 2026, according to government data, but independent estimates put the figure much higher. Around 1.3 million Egyptians enter the labour market each year, but only half a million jobs are created, the World Bank says.

Economists say higher exports are a 'do-or-die' priority for Egypt, so delaying is not an option

Local components

A hard truth is that Egypt must fundamentally change the structure of its products if it is to raise exports without also raising imports. If this is to change, some say, Egypt must expand local manufacturing and reduce dependence on components arriving from elsewhere.

"Raising the percentage of local components in finished goods would automatically reduce reliance on imports," said Mustafa al-Bahei, a member of the Committee on Industry in the Egyptian parliament, speaking to Al Majalla. However, he warned against a push to reduce imports if Egyptian-made alternatives are not available. "This will cause production to stop and commodity prices to rise in the local market," he said. Last year, Egypt's imports totalled $115bn.

Reuters — A bus chassis on a production line in 10th of Ramadan City, Egypt, on 3 March 2026.

Egypt's auto industry sector is in focus. Cairo wants to expand car production to meet local market needs and capitalise on Egypt's location as a gateway to the Middle East and African markets, but vehicle production still relies on imported equipment. The government wants Egyptian carmakers to rely more on Egyptian components.

It fits into a broader pattern. The Ministry of Industry is trying to increase the percentage of Egyptian components used in Egyptian-manufactured goods. Hashim said this would support its feeder industries and create integrated supply chains, adding jobs. The minister suggested the new strategy would target key sectors such as automotive, textiles, garments, food, pharmaceuticals, engineering, and electronics.

Structural barriers

The government's plan to grow exports by reducing reliance on foreign production inputs will face a series of hurdles, however, not least Egypt's current high import dependence and its incomplete value chains. Egypt's most export-oriented sectors still import the bulk of raw materials, intermediates, and components.

Moving beyond assembly to genuine localisation requires attracting and integrating suppliers who cannot only meet required quality standards but also deliver at the necessary volume. "The absence of such suppliers can torpedo the whole export-increase plan," one industry insider told Al Majalla.

The lack of skilled and technical workers, especially in advanced sectors such as automotive and electronics, is another challenge, with Hashim having flagged this as a "major obstacle". Vocational training systems lag behind industry needs, creating skills mismatches that slow technology absorption and quality upgrading.

Others point to a lack of fully serviced industrial land. Extending electricity, water, sewage, and other utilities to industrial zones is still expensive and slow. Again, Hashim described the provision of utilities and infrastructure for industrial land as an "ongoing challenge".

Some feel that the success or otherwise of increasing exports, bringing in more foreign currency, and building up economic resilience will depend on how quickly Egypt builds genuine depth into its industrial base. The goal is to shift Egypt from an economy that assembles and re-exports to one that manufactures by maximising local value, narrowing the gap between export growth and import dependence.

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