The dramatic escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately decide the fate of the crucial waterway for decades to come. Until the outbreak of the Iran war in February, the Strait was subjected to the normal laws of the sea, merchant ships passing freely through the narrow passageway, including those carrying around 20% of the world’s energy needs.
This long-established arrangement, which had operated smoothly save for the disruption caused by the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, was brought to an abrupt halt in 2026, when the US and Israel launched their attacks by killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and army chiefs.
While the war meant the effective closure of the Strait, with few merchant vessels willing to risk it, the situation has been further complicated by Iran’s efforts to weaponise the waterway by claiming sovereignty over an international shipping lane, before indicating that it intends to charge tolls on those using it. This was widely seen as little more than a blackmail by a regime desperate to survive.
Unsurprisingly, this met strong opposition from both the US Trump administration, as well as key regional powers, who insist that the Strait should return to its normal neutral status once a peace deal is reached. Guaranteeing freedom of navigation through the Strait has been one of President Trump’s key demands in his 14-point Memorandum of Understanding for ending the conflict.
Tit-for-tat exchanges
Another top priority for Trump is ending Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, but while mediators say progress is being made on both these issues in Geneva and Qatar, Iran has continued to attack shipping in the Strait, prompting a firm response from the US, which has a heavy military presence in the region.
What began as tit-for-tat exchanges between the US and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now threatens to descend into all-out war after Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, no doubt borne of frustration at the slow progress. While insisting that Iran remains keen to negotiate, Trump also boasts that Iran will be destroyed, which would clearly render further negotiations unnecessary.
Trump has also made conflicting claims about his ultimate objectives regarding the future shipping arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. Having said that the US will be its “guardian”, for which Washington would charge a 20% toll for ‘protection’, Trump then rowed back, claiming that he had scrapped the plan after “highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership”.
Strait fee threat
Trump’s threat to impose fees, made during an interview with Fox News, caused consternation after he announced that the US was re-imposing its naval blockade of Iranian ports for ships both arriving and departing. “We are reinstating THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving,” Trump later wrote on social media.
