Israel's Lebanon attacks threaten fragile US-Iran truce

Just hours after Pakistan announced a two-week ceasefire and the world breathed a sigh of relief, Israel rained bombs and bloodshed on Lebanon, carrying out over 100 strikes in 10 minutes

Israel's Lebanon attacks threaten fragile US-Iran truce

For all the fanfare that initially surrounded the US-Iran ceasefire, it is clear that much work still needs to be done if the conflict is to be resolved. Having threatened to destroy Iran’s “whole civilisation”, Trump may have breathed a sigh of relief after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire shortly before the deadline he had given the Iranians was due to expire.

"The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

One of the US president’s key conditions for halting hostilities was the requirement that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which around 20% of the world’s energy needs passes in more peaceful times. Iran agreed to the demand—with conditions—as part of a 10-point peace plan aimed at ending the month-long war, which has seen the US and Israel pummel military and civilian infrastructure in Iran, killing at least 2,000 people. Iran fought back, launching strikes on US and Israeli bases and assets across the region. It also effectively closed the Strait by threatening commercial shipping.

Positive outlook

While Iran has suggested that, in future, it will assume responsibility for administering the Strait of Hormuz, which it claims is Iranian sovereign territory, and impose entry tolls on international shipping using the waterway, Trump has remained positive about the outcome of the ceasefire talks. He said that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran,” and insisted that the two-week ceasefire period “will allow the Agreement to be finalised and consummated.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is credited with having played a key role in brokering the ceasefire, having urged Trump to extend the deadline for Iran by two weeks via a post on X. Sharif wrote that “diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future.”

The deepening tension over Israel's violent attacks has prompted Iran to threaten to restart the war if the US does not get its ally under control.

Iran has also moved quickly to accept the ceasefire, with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declaring that Iran would cease its defensive operations "if attacks against Iran are halted."

"For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," he added.

Emerging cracks

But within hours of the deal being announced, cracks began to appear in the ceasefire after Israel carried out the deadliest terrorist attack in Lebanon's history by striking over 100 targets in the country in 10 minutes. Without warning, it rained bombs in all directions and even on civilian neighbourhoods in central Beirut, not considered to be "Hezbollah strongholds." Already, the death toll from the 8 April attack has passed 200 people, with many more bodies expected to be pulled out of the rubble.

The White House has previously indicated that, as part of the ceasefire deal with Iran, Israel had also agreed to a two-week ceasefire. But Israel quickly moved to deny this, insisting that the agreement did not cover its military operations against Hezbollah, which the Israelis regard as a separate conflict from the one being fought with Iran. In response, Iran said it had closed the Strait again and promised it wouldn't open it until Israel adhered to the truce. The apparent unravelling of the ceasefire so soon after it had been agreed prompted Pakistan's premier to appeal for calm following what he called "violations". 

"Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process," Sharif wrote in a post on X. "I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict."

US Vice President JD Vance suggested the Israelis may curb their attacks on Lebanon to help preserve negotiations.

'The US must choose'

But Iran laid the blame squarely at Israel's door for the continuing tensions in the region, with Araghchi declaring, "The Iran–US ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the US must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both. The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments."

The deepening tension over Israel's violent attacks has prompted Iran to threaten to restart the war if the US does not get its ally under control. Iran's closure of the Strait has sent fuel prices skyrocketing across Europe and the US, and has led to tensions between the US and Europe after Trump accused NATO allies of not helping to reopen the passage.

US Vice President JD Vance, who is due to travel to Islamabad this weekend for peace talks with Iran, called the disagreement around Lebanon a "legitimate misunderstanding", while suggesting the Israelis may curb their attacks on Hezbollah to help preserve negotiations. He put the cracks in the ceasefire down to a "legitimate misunderstanding" from the Iranians who "thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't".

Nevertheless, with the ceasefire facing challenges on a number of fronts, Vance and the other negotiators will clearly have their work cut out if they are to agree a lasting settlement to end the conflict.

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