Zelenskyy bets the house by firing defence minister and army chief

When the head of the army and the young minister revolutionising Ukraine’s warfighting fell out, the president sacked the latter. When it proved unpopular, he sacked his top general too. Will it work?

Zelenskyy bets the house by firing defence minister and army chief

In times of war, the removal of a country’s senior military commander and defence minister would normally not be considered a good omen for victory. In Ukraine, however, the departure of both within just a few days of each other is being seen as ultimately strengthening the position of the country’s wartime leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The president’s decision to dismiss Mykhailo Fedorov, 35, his popular defence minister, then Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, a four-star general, was primarily the result of a deepening rift between the two men over how to best prosecute the war with Russia.

They come from different worlds. Fedorov’s forte is technology. He has championed the use of new weaponry including robotics and drones to achieve battlefield success, instead of relying on more traditional military strategies of Ukraine’s Soviet-era military establishment led by Syrskyi. It was Syrskyi’s traditional approach that defended Kyiv during the early days of the war, making him an overnight hero among Ukrainians.

Even so, Syrskyi found himself coming under increasing pressure from Ukraine’s younger generation of officers, who accused him of taking decisions that put their lives at risk for little reward on the battlefield. Fedorov’s appointment as defence minister exacerbated these tensions. The two men fell out to such an extent that they were reportedly unable to be in the same room as one another. Eventually, Zelenskyy sacrificed Fedorov.

A mood misjudged

He likely hoped that this would resolve tensions at the heart of Ukraine’s military hierarchy, but he soon realised that it would not, as thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to demand the defence minister be reinstated. Fedorov had only been in post for six months, yet his tenure coincided with some of Ukraine’s most important military successes, they argued.

Popular displays of anti-government sentiment, even in the midst of Ukraine’s bitter conflict with Russia, are not uncommon. Last summer Zelenskyy had to sack his all-powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, following a row over plans to remove the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies.

Popular displays of anti-government sentiment, even in the midst of Ukraine's bitter conflict with Russia, are not uncommon

Zelenskyy's willingness to accept his mistake by attempting to reduce the effectiveness of Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies, as well as dismissing one of his closest confidantes, was widely seen as strengthening his position as Ukraine's wartime leader, because it showed that he was willing to listen to the street.

In recent months, Ukraine has enjoyed a dramatic turnaround on the battlefield, with Kyiv's forces seizing the initiative and taking the fight to Russia. Zelenskyy will hope that his handling of the Fedorov-Syrskyi standoff will give him a similar boost, not least because he heard the protesters' demands and sacked his top general.

Corrective action

As protesters poured into Kyiv's central square, Zelenskyy offered Fedorov his job back as defence minister. Fedorov declined, saying he could not return if Syrskyi remained in post. Zelenskyy then offered to create a new position for him on the country's national security council, but Fedorov again refused. His obstinacy, together with the protesters' demands, led him to dismiss Syrskyi, replacing him with Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi, 43, who is known to be friendly with Fedorov.

It remains to be seen whether Zelenskyy's handling of the row will reassert or undermine his authority. The answer is of the utmost importance, give that Kyiv has said it is open to negotiations with Moscow to end a conflict that began in February 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin shows little interest in negotiating a peaceful resolution, in part because he does not recognise Zelenskyy's legitimacy as Ukraine's leader.

With Zelenskyy having drawn the ire of protesters in Kyiv, Putin may conclude that this reaffirms his view that his opposite number does not enjoy the wholesale support of the Ukrainian people. If Ukraine's military continues having the successes it has had this year, however, Putin may have no choice but to talk to the Ukrainian president, protesters or not.

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