Deal or no deal? Iran's fate hangs in the balance amid US military buildup

Iran says it is willing to make some concessions on its nuclear programme, but zero uranium enrichment is off the table

Deal or no deal? Iran's fate hangs in the balance amid US military buildup

With the Trump administration’s military build-up in the Gulf growing stronger by the day, Iran is coming under unprecedented pressure to reach a new deal with Washington on its controversial nuclear programme.

With two heavily-armed aircraft carrier battle groups already deployed to the region, the US has added to its firepower by deploying 11 F-22 stealth fighter jets to Israel, along with state-of-the-art air defence systems. The aim of these latest deployments is to provide Israel with sufficient defensive cover in the event of Iran launching missile attacks against it in retaliation for any potential US military operation.

As the largest deployment of US aircraft and warships seen in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War continues to amass, Trump said his preferred option was to resolve tensions with Iran through diplomacy during his address to the nation on Tuesday night.

"My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy," Trump added. "They want to make a deal. But we haven’t heard those secret words: we will never have a nuclear weapon." In his first term as president, Trump tore up the original nuclear deal negotiated with Iran by the Obama administration in 2015.

And recently, the US president alleged Iran was developing missiles that could threaten Europe and US bases abroad, which could "soon reach the United States of America."

The sheer size of the latest American buildup has certainly led many observers to conclude that, if no new deal with Tehran is forthcoming, Trump will, at the very least, launch another series of strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

New assertion

Even though the US president said—in the aftermath of last June’s targeted US air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities—that his administration had obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities, he recently asserted that Iran has started to set up new nuclear sites.

As the largest US military deployment in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War continues to amass, Trump insists he prefers diplomacy

While Iran has always insisted its nuclear activities are designed for peaceful purposes, the Trump administration remains deeply sceptical about Tehran's true intentions. Before the June attack, Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Iran says its enrichment activity stopped after the June attacks, although it has not allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspectors to access the damaged sites.

"We wiped it out, and they want to start all over again and are at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions," the president said in his State of the Union address.

His views were echoed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who told reporters this week that Iran is "always trying to rebuild elements" of its nuclear program. He said that Tehran is not enriching uranium right now, "but they're trying to get to the point where they ultimately can."

The combination of the uncompromising rhetoric emanating from the Trump administration, together with the scale of the American military build-up, puts the Iranian regime in a tight corner at a time when it is already struggling to cope with a collapsing economy and nationwide anti-government protests.

A key indication that the US is seriously considering military action against Iran is that the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has dispersed its ships from its base in Bahrain—a move it also undertook last summer prior to Iran's missile attack against Qatar.

Defiant tone

Despite the enormous pressure being piled against it, Iran continues to strike a defiant tone against Trump's threats, with the regime denouncing his claims in his State of the Union address as "big lies".

Despite the enormous pressure being piled against it, Iran continues to strike a defiant tone against Trump's threats to strike

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, warned that the US could either try diplomacy or face Iran's wrath.

"If you choose the table of diplomacy—a diplomacy in which the dignity of the Iranian nation and mutual interests are respected—we will also be at that table," Qalibaf said.

"But if you decide to repeat past experiences through deception, lies, flawed analysis and false information, and launch an attack in the midst of negotiations, you will undoubtedly taste the firm blow of the Iranian nation and the country's defensive forces."

In an attempt to avoid a fresh military confrontation with the US, the Iranians have indicated that they are willing to offer some concessions about their nuclear programme, but still reject the US demand to stop all uranium enrichment on their territory.

Whether this concession is enough to persuade Trump to agree to a new deal could be the difference between a peaceful resolution of the current crisis between Iran and the US and a fresh military confrontation.

font change