Alliances in the Middle East can no longer be viewed through the familiar lens of traditional conflicts or the ideological divides that shaped the region for decades. As 2026 begins, the logic of alignment itself is shifting. A single contest is driving this change, even as it takes different forms across arenas: the struggle to restore the state's authority and its monopoly on arms, in defiance of militias and armed groups, while preserving strategic depth in the surrounding environment.
Until recently, this was more of a hypothetical. In recent weeks, however, it has taken on concrete form. Across several states in the region, seemingly separate battles have erupted that are, in fact, tightly connected. Central authority is being reasserted, while quota politics and regional carve-ups are being pushed aside. What stands out is not only the simultaneity of these confrontations, but also their nature. These are not battles over changing governments or recalibrating internal power balances—it is a fight over legitimacy itself.
Case studies
The confrontation between Yemen's internationally recognised government and the Southern Transitional Council must be understood in this context. Beyond political or administrative disputes, a battle is being waged to preserve the state's unity and to disarm and dissolve the militias and groups hellbent on secession and fragmentation.
Meanwhile, in Sudan, regional powers opposed to the country's fragmentation are providing military, political, and logistical support to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in its fight against the Rapid Support Forces. The gradual emergence of a quasi-state has motivated regional powers to act swiftly and forcefully against this phenomenon, lest this model of fragmentation be replicated across the region.
