In the four or so decades since the creation of Iran’s Islamic Republic, the ruling regime has faced numerous challenges from its restive population. The so-called “Green Revolution” in 2009, which many observers regarded as a precursor to the Arab Spring that followed two years later, is still regarded as the most serious attempt to force the regime to undertake wholesale reform.
In what began as a series of mass protests against the outcome of the disputed 2009 presidential election, which resulted in the re-election of the country’s hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the movement soon developed into a nationwide call for democratic reform and social liberalisation. It was only after regime hardliners launched a brutal crackdown against the demonstrators that order was finally restored.
The crackdown did not entirely succeed in crushing dissent, with more recent protests taking place over the regime’s restrictive policies towards women, which prompted further nationwide demonstrations after a young Kurdish-Iranian woman died in police custody in 2022.
But while the Iranian regime has previously proved to be highly effective at crushing any hint of political opposition that has emerged since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the current round of protests have the potential to mount a far more serious challenge to the regime’s authority, not least because it is focused on one issue that the ayatollahs appear incapable of resolving—namely, the dire state of the Iranian economy.
Maintaining a basic level of economic stability has always been a major challenge for the ruling regime, as decades of economic sanctions and international isolation have inflicted significant damage on the living standards of ordinary Iranians.
Nor has the plight of the Iranian people been helped by the vast amounts hardliners within the regime have invested in expanding Iran’s military presence throughout the Middle East, investing heavily in militias and allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen—to name but a few.
