Will the Gaza ceasefire make it to phase two?

Israel’s ongoing violations of the truce and Trump’s apathy over Palestinian grievances give little room for optimism

(L-R)Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after signing the Abraham Accords on 15 September 2020.
AFP
(L-R)Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after signing the Abraham Accords on 15 September 2020.

Will the Gaza ceasefire make it to phase two?

US President Donald Trump warmly greeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida this week as the two leaders put on a public display of unity on multiple fronts—from Gaza to Iran to Netanyahu’s legal and political challenges at home.

This meeting came after weeks of signs and speculation about possible tactical gaps between the two leaders on key issues like moving into the second phase of Trump’s 20-point plan on Gaza.

Trump makes no secret of his aspiration to be viewed as a peacemaker—even as he orders strikes in far-flung places such as Venezuela and Nigeria—and securing a lasting, comprehensive peace in the Middle East remains a top priority.

But one element that has been absent from Trump’s modus operandi since his first term in office will likely impede substantial progress in the Middle East: a meaningful effort to address the grievances of the Palestinian people in Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem and genuinely include them in a sustainable peace.

Monday's public show of unity between Trump and Netanyahu reinforced once again how the US prioritises Israel’s concerns at the expense of Palestinian rights.

This was largely the case in Trump’s first term as president. After some warm exchanges with Palestinian Authority leaders in the first year of his first term, Trump implemented a maximum pressure campaign on the Palestinians, closing the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s diplomatic office in Washington, DC and cutting US aid to Palestinians in 2018.

In early 2020, the first Trump administration issued a “Peace to Prosperity” plan that had little input from Palestinians and was criticised by its leaders. Trump achieved normalisation deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco in his first term without having to make any concessions to the Palestinians.

AFP
 
(L-R)Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after signing the Abraham Accords on 15 September 2020.

But this formula won’t likely work if Trump is serious about achieving a normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel and wider peace in the Middle East. More than two years of Israel’s war on Gaza, along with its increasingly unpredictable and aggressive actions across the Middle East in the past year, have made leading Arab countries like Saudi Arabia less enthusiastic about building ties with Israel.

Trump came into his second term in office with a ceasefire and hostage release deal in place that lasted only a few weeks until Israel decided to end it and restart military operations and a siege on Gaza that exacerbated the humanitarian situation for millions of Palestinians there from the spring into the summer and fall of this year.

Monday's public show of unity between Trump and Netanyahu reinforced once again how the US prioritises Israel's concerns over Palestinian rights

An intentionally vague deal

In October, Trump secured a second ceasefire deal with a 20-point plan that remains intentionally and exceptionally vague on key questions, including who exactly will govern Palestinians in Gaza and how the plan's objective of disarming Hamas will be implemented. 

In his meeting with Netanyahu this week, Trump said he was not concerned about anything Israel was doing in Gaza and asserted that it had "100%" lived up to its commitments despite evidence to the contrary, including ongoing military strikes and continued limits on humanitarian aid delivery.

Furthermore, Trump threatened Hamas with "hell to pay" if it didn't disarm and suggested that several countries that might join the international stabilisation force envisioned for Gaza could possibly play a role in disarming the group. But given the risks involved, this prospect is unlikely.

Trump's 20-point plan includes an international "peace board" that he oversees and offers a placeholder for as-yet-unnamed Palestinians to a temporary transitional governance committee of technocratic, apolitical Palestinians who would be responsible for public services and municipalities in Gaza. And while Trump reportedly wants to move forward on phase two of the deal in early 2026, Israel opposes the Palestinian Authority playing any role.

Trump's failure to genuinely include Palestinians in negotiations over their future is the greatest flaw in Trump's plan and also his broader approach to the Middle East. 

Yoan Valat / REUTERS
US President Donald Trump speaks during a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered detainee swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 13 October 2025.

US President Donald Trump speaks during a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered detainee swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 13 October 2025.

This summer, his administration banned all Palestinian passport holders from travelling to the United States, including top PA officials and ordinary Palestinians coming for education or medical treatment.

Add to that the fact that top Trump officials, including Vice President JD Vance, use "Palestinian" as a derogatory epithet to demean their domestic political opponents—echoing something Trump himself said as a presidential candidate in 2024—and this does not bode well for Palestinians who want to see their voice respected and part of the future in Trump's Middle East.

Need to course-correct

If the Trump administration wants to see substantial, lasting progress in the Middle East, it will have to course-correct on the Palestinian front. Leading Arab countries are more united than ever in their support for lifting up the Palestinian people and demanding a pathway to a two-state solution. These include Gulf countries that Trump expects to provide substantial funds and other resources to rebuild Gaza and to support broader regional integration efforts. 

Read more: How Israel's war on Gaza helped the Arab world rediscover its agency

Trump prides himself on his unpredictability, and he has, on occasion, made moves that caught the current Israeli government off balance on the Palestinian front. This fall, he issued a red line warning against any possible Israeli efforts to annex the West Bank, and just this week, he and his top aides reportedly warned Netanyahu against the destabilising actions his government has undertaken there.

But without more robust engagement with the Palestinian people, Trump's efforts to move to phase two in his 20-point plan are unlikely to succeed, let alone produce lasting peace in the region.

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